TL;DR
Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer labels 2026 as an “off-year” for Bitcoin after its October 2025 peak.
He sees potential for a price correction to the $65,000–$75,000 support zone.
The view contrasts with other forecasts that remain bullish for 2026 (e.g., Bitwise).
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, signals a cautious stance on Bitcoin for 2026. Timmer describes 2026 as an off-year for the largest cryptocurrency by market value and anchors the view in cycle math tied to the latest peak.
Bitcoin trades near $86,207 and keeps failing to retake $90,000. Price action reflects ongoing weakness after the $125,000 high reached in October 2025, and buyers have not restored control around prior breakout zones.
Timmer also revisits a prior call that compared Bitcoin with gold. He expected Bitcoin to beat gold during the second half of the year. However, gold rose while Bitcoin fell over the same stretch. Timmer says mean reversion does not appear yet, so the gap can persist in the near term.
Timmer tags $125,000 as a cycle top and watches $65,000–$75,000 for support
Timmer argues the rally reached a natural endpoint at $125,000. He links the peak to “145 months of rallying” and says the timing matches historical patterns in his dataset. Therefore, he treats the October high as the likely top of the current cycle and reads the bull phase as finished.
Under Timmer’s framework, Bitcoin can retrace and search for a floor. He points to a potential support zone between $65,000 and $75,000 as an area where sellers may slow and the market may stabilize. Timmer still likes Bitcoin over the long run, yet he separates long-run conviction from a weaker setup for 2026.
Bitwise rejects a 2026 crypto winter and argues that ETFs and institutional participation reduce old boom-bust behavior. Bitwise expects BTC to post a new record during 2026, based on flows and broader access.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered and Bernstein keep a positive bias, but both firms lowered targets after the October 2025 peak. VanEck avoids a 2026 call and declines to publish a point forecast.
The split shows a market that still digests the post-peak phase. Timmer emphasizes cycle duration and a pullback toward $65,000–$75,000. Bitwise emphasizes ETFs and structural demand. For now, Bitcoin sitting near $86,207 and failing to reclaim $90,000 provides the simplest scoreboard.
