If you are an old holder of MATIC,
You must have gone through these stages:
The king of ETH scaling
The public chain with the most enterprise cooperation
Layer2 must come with a plan.
But by today, you probably only have one question left in your mind:
Why has it done everything but not increased in value?
Let me first give you a conclusion without beating around the bush:
👉 The issue with MATIC is not the bear market,
But rather: The Layer2 narrative itself is being repriced in the prolonged bear market, and even marginalized.
First, let's look at today's reality: Layer2 is no longer a 'must-have.'
Look back at the recent market focus:
ETF → BTC / ETH
Risk experiment → SOL
Stablecoin → TRX / BNB
Emotions → Meme
What about Layer2?
👉 Almost no main position.
It's not just MATIC,
But the entire Layer2 sector—
Has been overall 'devalued' by the market.
Two, why do people say MATIC is a typical case of 'doing the old logic to the extreme, but losing to the new cycle'?
You must admit one thing:
👉 MATIC has almost completed 'the correct answer of the previous Layer2'.
Enterprise cooperation:
Meta
Nike
Starbucks
Technical route:
PoS
zk transformation
Ecological construction:
Developers
Toolchain
Fund support
But here comes the problem:
When the market cycle changes,
'The perfect answer of the old cycle,'
May be worthless in the new cycle.
Three, Layer2 narrative, why suddenly not appealing in a slow bear?
The reason is very realistic and very cruel:
1️⃣ ETH has not been 'squeezed out'
Gas has not continuously spiraled out of control
User growth is slowing
👉 The 'urgency' for expansion has disappeared.
2️⃣ Multiple chains coexist, users are no longer obsessed with 'returning to ETH'
SOL
New public chain
Applications directly deployed natively
👉 The logic of 'must return to ETH' has loosened.
3️⃣ Layer2s start to become competitive
Arbitrum
Optimism
zkSync
Starknet
👉 MATIC is no longer monopolizing the mindset.
Four, a very crucial point that few people mention:
Enterprise cooperation ≠ Secondary market buying
This is the most fatal misconception about MATIC.
What you see is:
Large companies use Polygon
Brands issuing NFTs
Web2 collaborations continue
But you overlooked one thing:
👉 These collaborations almost do not require continuous buying of MATIC in the secondary market.
Gas consumption is extremely low
Can settle internally
Cost controllable
The result is:
The ecology is lively,
But the price is not 'needed'.
Five, why is MATIC in a slow bear, even more uncomfortable than 'inactive coins'?
Because it attracts:
👉 Long-term, rational, believing in 'fundamentals' funds.
But the cruelest point of the slow bear is:
It will continuously punish the logic of 'long-term correct, but short-term no return'.
The opportunity cost of holding MATIC is:
BTC ETF
SOL volatility
Meme emotions
In the slow bear,
This will create continuous psychological torment.
Six, from the perspective of funds, what is happening with MATIC?
In summary:
👉 Funds are not shorting MATIC,
But rather 'no longer prioritizing it'.
Not proactively configured
No emotional speculation
No main storyline
This state is more dangerous than being hit by bad news.
Seven, putting MATIC into today's structure, you will suddenly understand
Current market role distribution:
BTC: Macro anchor
ETH: The core asset that has been devalued
SOL: Risk thermometer
BNB: Platform stabilizer
TRX: Stablecoin channel
Meme: Emotional outlet
MATIC: The 'old expansion logic' that has been delayed in fulfillment
Pay attention to these words:
👉 Delayed fulfillment.
Not a denial,
But rather delayed.
Eight, when might MATIC be needed by the market again?
Only under one of the following conditions:
1️⃣ ETH again faces severe Gas pressure
2️⃣ zk technology becomes the only mainstream expansion solution
3️⃣ Layer2 is regulated or capital is clearly 'incorporated' as infrastructure
Otherwise, in the slow bear:
👉 It is difficult to become a main asset.
Nine, my core judgment (very direct)
I won't talk to you about feelings, only cycles:
MATIC is not a failure,
But it has completed 'the story of the previous round',
But this round, the market doesn't want to listen anymore.
This is more cruel than bad news.$MATIC
