The market is currently focused on two key events: Thursday's CPI data and Friday's potential interest rate decision from Japan. Concerns have emerged, and even today's early pullback can be interpreted as some funds preemptively hedging— the real focus of the market's speculation often lies not in the news itself, but in 'how prices are re-priced based on the news.'
From a daily structure perspective, the market remains within a large oscillation range. The key pressure zone above is concentrated in the 88000-89500 range—this area is not only the lower edge of the previous high platform but also resonates with the daily Bollinger upper band to form a resistance. If news drives prices up to this area but fails to be accompanied by effective volume expansion and sustained breakthroughs, it can be considered a high short reference zone on the daily level. The underlying logic is that a failure to test key resistance often means the market still recognizes a range-bound or corrective pattern, and bearish forces may coalesce again, with the first target observing support near 84000.
The core support zone below is located in the 84080-83520 range, which consists of multiple previous low points and serves as a key defense line for bulls at the daily level. If market panic triggered by CPI or interest rate news causes prices to fall to this level and a clear stabilization signal (such as a long lower shadow on the daily level or structural support confirmation) appears, it can be viewed as a low long opportunity at the daily level. The logic lies in the rebound momentum brought by effective support following negative news, with the first target looking up to the previous oscillation midpoint near 86000.
Operational strategy reference:
If a stabilization signal appears in the 84100-83200 zone, a light long position may be attempted, targeting 85500-86000.
If resistance is met in the 88500-89500 area during a rebound and the structure weakens, consider trying to short at a high, targeting 84500-85000.
All movements must be combined with real-time structure and volume considerations; key positions must not be broken, and maintaining positions is preferable to chasing trends.
