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modmay
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What was I saying? It turns out it’s a reward 🌚 But 0.1u is too little, right? Not to mention, I’d say to close all positions recommended with the interest rate hike in Japan on the 19th
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modmay
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日本加息对虚拟货币的风险主要体现在流动性收紧、日元套利交易平仓和避险情绪升温三个方面,具体影响如下: --- 1. 日元套利交易平仓,直接抽离加密市场资金 日本长期维持低利率,投资者借入低成本日元,转投高收益资产(如美股、加密货币)。一旦加息,日元升值、借贷成本上升,套利交易被迫平仓,资金回流日本,导致全球风险资产被抛售,加密货币作为高波动资产首当其冲。 - 2024年7月日本加息后,比特币从6.5万美元暴跌至5万美元,跌幅达26%,加密市场总市值蒸发6000亿美元。 - 当前全球日元套利交易规模超过1万亿美元,其中部分资金直接流入加密市场。 --- 2. 流动性收紧,等同于“逆向量化宽松” 加息意味着全球流动性收紧,尤其在日本是“最后一个零利率堡垒”转向紧缩的背景下,全球资金成本上升,风险偏好下降,加密货币等高风险资产面临估值重估。 - 比特币被部分投资者视为“流动性泡沫之子”,一旦流动性退潮,价格容易剧烈回调。 --- 3. 日元升值引发连锁反应,加剧市场波动 日本加息通常伴随日元升值,美元/日元汇率下降会触发全球风险资产重新定价,加密货币作为高”资产,波动幅度远大于传统市场。 - 数据显示,美元/日元每下跌5个点,比特币平均回调8%-12%。 - 若美元/日元跌破130,可能引发史上最大规模套利交易平仓,加密货币或进入熊市。 --- 4. 市场情绪恶化,杠杆清算加剧下跌 加息预期或落地后,市场恐慌情绪升温,VIX指数飙升,加密市场杠杆资金被强制平仓,形成“下跌-清算-再下跌”的恶性循环。 - 2025年12月,加密市场因加息预期蒸发约3亿美元,87%为多头清算。 - 比特币β系数高达2.2,即美股跌1%,比特币平均跌2.2% 以上个人观点 #BTC #ETH
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