The recent global financial and cryptocurrency markets are facing a series of critical turning points: the regulatory clouds that have plagued the DeFi industry for years are finally dissipating, as the SEC ends its four-year investigation into Aave; the Federal Reserve's path to interest rate cuts next year is becoming increasingly clear, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potentially more aggressive approach; asset management giant Bitwise has directly provided its top ten predictions for the 2026 cryptocurrency market, stating that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others will reach new all-time highs. On one side, there is a warm wind of policy and optimistic outlooks, while on the other, publicly traded companies holding massive amounts of Bitcoin face delisting risks. The intertwining of 'ice and fire' in the market heralds a new round of opportunities and challenges.
1. Major breakthrough in the crypto industry: SEC ends four-year investigation into Aave, DeFi welcomes new dawn.
For the DeFi (Decentralized Finance) industry, the most exciting news recently has been the end of the four-year investigation by the U.S. SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) into the leading protocol Aave.
Aave founder Stani.eth expressed excitement in a post on X platform: To protect the Aave ecosystem and the broader DeFi field, the team has invested a lot of effort and resources. In recent years, the DeFi industry has been under unfair regulatory pressure, and now it can finally break free from these constraints and enter a new era where developers can truly build the financial future.
This news is significant because the SEC's regulatory stance on the crypto industry has been extremely aggressive, from suing leading exchanges to investigating core protocols, plunging the entire industry into 'regulatory confusion,' with many platforms being forced to exit the U.S. market. The SEC's conclusion of the investigation into Aave is seen within the industry as an important signal of regulatory softening, which not only clears obstacles for the development of the Aave ecosystem but may also open new paths for the compliance development of the entire DeFi industry.
2. Federal Reserve policy game: expectations for interest rate cuts heat up, competition for Chairman enters critical period.
The liquidity expectations of the crypto market are being firmly influenced by the policy trends of the Federal Reserve. Recently, two key pieces of news have intensified the market's expectations for interest rate cuts next year.
1. Goldman Sachs predicts: next year’s interest rate cuts will be more aggressive, closely watching unemployment rate data.
According to Jinshi News, Goldman Sachs' latest view suggests that the Federal Reserve may be more willing to advance interest rate cuts next year than previously expected by the market. Goldman Sachs' Chief Strategist Josh Schiffrin analyzed that Powell's recent statements at a news conference have already released clear signals — the Federal Reserve is increasingly concerned about the sustainability of employment conditions.
Schiffrin emphasizes that the upcoming employment reports will be crucial in determining whether the Federal Reserve will restore easing policies, and the market needs to focus on the unemployment rate rather than merely the growth in non-farm payrolls. Goldman Sachs further predicts that this easing cycle may extend until 2026, with the federal funds target rate potentially falling to 3% or lower. This prediction is more aggressive than the current market pricing for interest rate cuts and, if realized, will provide ample liquidity support for risk assets, including crypto assets.
2. The selection of the Federal Reserve Chairman is imminent: Trump will interview Waller, clarifying the competitive landscape among the three.
In addition to the pace of interest rate cuts, the competition for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman has also entered a critical stage. According to the Wall Street Journal, insiders revealed that President Trump will interview current Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who will compete with Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman.
Although Waller is currently viewed as the underdog in the competition, he is favored by Wall Street. From a policy standpoint, all three currently lean towards dovishness and support the Federal Reserve's prompt interest rate cuts. However, there are still differences in details: Waller has served in the Federal Reserve for a long time, with a relatively neutral and moderate policy orientation, emphasizing the independence of the Federal Reserve, and is considered a 'gradualist'; Hassett has close ties to the Trump administration and has a stronger political color; Warsh has historically been hawkish and opposed to quantitative easing and other policies but has recently shifted to support interest rate cuts.
The market generally believes that if Waller is elected, the Federal Reserve's capacity for interest rate cuts will depend more on economic fundamentals, with a relatively mild impact on the market; if the other two are elected, it may mean a decline in the Federal Reserve's independence, with potentially larger interest rate cuts, which would push up U.S. stocks and gold while lowering U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index. Waller's interview performance and his subsequent comments on the economic outlook will become the focus of market attention.
3. Industry dynamics: stablecoin payment platform secures massive financing, company holding 5,398 bitcoins faces delisting.
Beyond policy and outlook, the investment and financing as well as risk events in the crypto industry are also worth attention, with capital continuously increasing while some participants find themselves in difficulty.
1. Capital optimistic about stablecoin payments: RedotPay completes $107 million Series B financing
Hong Kong-based fintech company RedotPay recently successfully raised $107 million in Series B financing, led by Goodwater Capital, a venture capital firm focused on the consumer sector, with well-known institutions such as Pantera Capital, Blockchain Capital, and Circle Ventures also participating, and existing investor HSG (formerly Sequoia Capital China) continuing to increase its stake.
It is noteworthy that this Series B financing achieved an 'oversubscription,' just three months after the company completed a $47 million strategic financing in September (at that time, its valuation had exceeded $1 billion). Coupled with the $40 million Series A financing completed earlier this year, RedotPay's total financing amount since its establishment has reached approximately $200 million. As a platform focused on stablecoin payments, RedotPay states that its transaction volume and user adoption rate are both continuing to grow, and this financing will be used to further expand its stablecoin payment business.
2. Risk warning: KindlyMD, holding $466 million in bitcoin, faces Nasdaq delisting.
In stark contrast to the investment and financing boom, the publicly listed bitcoin treasury company KindlyMD (stock code: NAKA) is facing a delisting crisis. This is because its stock price has been below $1 for 30 consecutive trading days, reaching the delisting standard of Nasdaq.
According to the rules, KindlyMD must raise its stock price above $1 and maintain it for 10 consecutive trading days before June 8, 2026, to avoid delisting. Data shows that the stock first fell below $1 in late October this year, with a closing price of only $0.38 on Monday, still a considerable distance from the $1 target. Even more lamentable is that since the stock price hit an all-time high in May, it has plummeted by 99%.
It is worth noting that KindlyMD is not a small company — it holds 5,398 bitcoins, valued at approximately $466 million at current prices, making it the 19th largest corporate holder of bitcoin globally. The company was previously acquired by Nakomoto via a reverse merger in August, but it is now facing a delisting crisis, reflecting the vulnerability of crypto treasury companies amid market fluctuations.
Summary: Policy and liquidity resonate, with opportunities and risks coexisting in the crypto market.
From the SEC ending the Aave investigation releasing a regulatory warmth, to Goldman Sachs predicting that aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will lead to liquidity easing, and Bitwise proclaiming an optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies to reach new historical highs in 2026, the policy and market environment for the crypto industry is changing positively. The massive financing in the stablecoin payment sector also confirms capital's recognition of the application scenarios for crypto assets, laying a foundation for the industry's long-term development.
At the same time, the delisting crisis faced by KindlyMD also reminds us that the risks in the crypto market have never disappeared. Even publicly traded companies holding massive bitcoin may fall into difficulties due to stock price fluctuations; the divergence among institutions regarding the market in 2026 also indicates that the market will not be smooth sailing.
For investors, the future requires focus on two major themes: first, the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the selection of the Chairman, which will directly determine the direction of global liquidity; second, the implementation of regulatory policies in the crypto industry, especially the progress of the CLARITY Act, which may become the key to breakthroughs for assets like Ethereum and Solana. Under the resonance of policy and liquidity, the crypto market in 2026 may welcome a significant market, but only by being vigilant about individual risks and grasping core trends can opportunities be seized amid volatility.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should rationally view cryptocurrency investments based on their own risk tolerance and investment goals, and should not blindly follow trends.
