A whale that has held HYPE for a whole year suddenly emptied all positions today, 414,000 units, which was once worth 11.2 million dollars! Meanwhile, the 4-hour chart looks very bad, and the price is struggling in the critical support zone of 28-26. Is this going to crash, or is it the last drop?
News
On-chain data confirms that a whale, which aggressively built positions shortly after HYPE's launch, has completely sold out within the past 8 hours after holding for a full 12 months. This is not short-term speculation; it is the exit of long-term investors. What does this indicate? Even the earliest and most optimistic supporters of the project are giving up, which is a heavy blow to market confidence and can easily trigger panic selling.
Technical analysis
From the 4-hour K-line, the situation is very severe: MACD has a death cross below water, trading volume continues to shrink, and the rebound is weak. The price is barely struggling in the range of 28-26, but once the key level of 26 is broken with volume, there is almost no decent support below, and it is very likely to test the lowest point near 21 during October's black swan event. From 26 to 21 means there is still nearly 20% room for decline.
Hongcai's personal opinion
Under the dual pressure of giant whales clearing positions and technical breakdowns, HYPE continuing to decline is a high probability event. The position at 26 may have bulls struggling, but it is likely that they cannot hold on. The real strong support is around 21, where one should consider whether to bet on a rebound. Don't think about bottom-fishing just because it has dropped a lot; the power of the trend is stronger than you imagine.
What should players and novices do?
Absolutely do not bottom-fish! In the case of giant whales clearing positions and a clear downward trend, any purchase is counter-trend trading. No one knows where the bottom is, especially for coins where long-term holders have already run away.
Holders should exit at the rebound. If you are still stuck, don't fantasize about recovering your capital immediately. If you can't hold until below 21, take the opportunity to reduce positions or even clear them when the price approaches 27-28. If it breaks below 26, you should decisively exit.
Those with no positions should just watch. If you really want to participate, enter with a light short position and set a stop loss.
HYPE is facing the dual test of long-term capital fleeing and technical breakdowns, posing a very high risk. In the cryptocurrency circle, surviving is more important than making money. Don’t let your hard-earned money be used to catch the falling knife of those who have been running the market for an entire year.
The decline is not the end of the world, but a touchstone to test your cognition and discipline. Only those who can remain calm in panic can seize the next wave of surges. Pay attention to Hongcai and participate in every attack from Hongcai! Hongcai will announce specific entry times and real-time news every day at Caishen's house!#加密市场观察 $HYPE
