The Bitcoin price, at first glance, appears static. Over the last 24 hours, the decline was only 0.2%. In the weekly perspective, the first cryptocurrency has hardly changed in price, showing an increase of about 0.7%. This consolidation creates a sense of market calm.
However, beneath the surface of the chart, signals are accumulating that indicate the fundamental strength of the asset. The momentum is gradually shifting, the conviction of sellers is weakening, and large holders continue to quietly position themselves. These factors explain why bullish forecasts made by experts like Tom Lee remain relevant, even without an immediate breakout upward.
Improvement of momentum and volume signals
On the daily chart, Bitcoin continues to hold the level of $90,100. This zone serves as a reliable foundation during the recent volatility, preventing deeper drawdowns despite the lack of directed growth.
One of the earliest signals comes from the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. It tracks where trading volume is directed, helping to identify hidden buying or selling pressure.
From December 9 to 11, the Bitcoin price formed a lower high, while OBV built a higher high. This divergence indicates that even with external slowing, buyers were more active beneath the surface.
A similar signal strengthened from December 10 to 12. During this period, Bitcoin established a lower low, but OBV formed a higher low. This confirms the same trend from the other side. Sellers were able to push the price down, but the volumes supporting their actions were weak.
These two divergences do not contradict each other, but work in conjunction. Together they demonstrate that selling pressure is not increasing, but weakening. This does not guarantee an immediate breakthrough, but such patterns often precede impulse movements.
Positioning of large holders
Technical momentum signals are insufficient. Additional confirmation comes from on-chain data. The metric 'Holder Net Position Change' tracks whether long-term investors are increasing or decreasing their positions. Negative values indicate selling. A decrease in negative values means a weakening of selling pressure.
As of December 10, long-term holders realized about 155,999 BTC. By December 13, this figure decreased to 150,614 BTC. This indicates a reduction in selling pressure of about 3.4%.
The change is not dramatic, but it is significant. Bitcoin is not experiencing panic selling, despite trading in a narrow range. On the contrary, investors are reducing asset realization as the price stabilizes. This behavior is typical for consolidation phases, not for downward trends.
The strongest signal comes from 'whales'. The number of entities holding at least 1,000 BTC remains near a six-month high. This metric reflects the activity of large, long-term investors.
Since the end of October, the Bitcoin price has corrected and moved horizontally. During the same period, large holders continued to increase their positions. This creates a clear divergence: the price weakened, but large investors steadily accumulated the asset. Their actions are generally not devoid of rational grounds.
Such behavior helps explain why bullish price forecasts for Bitcoin from analysts like Tom Lee remain valid.
The behavior of 'whales' explains why bullish forecasts, including those from analysts like Tom Lee, remain relevant. These estimates are based not on short-term fluctuations, but on declining selling volumes, improving volume structure, and steady accumulation by large participants. However, the price needs to confirm this theory.
Levels that determine further movement
For Bitcoin to transform these signals into active growth, price confirmation is necessary.
The key level remains at $94,600. A daily close above this zone, which means a rise of about 5% from current levels, will push the asset above the upper boundary of the current consolidation. This will signal that buyers have regained short-term control.
In the event of a breakout at $94,600, the next resistance is around $99,800. A sustained hold above this mark may open the way to $107,500, if overall market conditions allow. This will be the first real catalyst for achieving Tom Lee's aggressive forecast of $180,000 mentioned earlier.
In the event of a negative scenario, upon losing the level of $90,000, the nearest support is at $89,200. A breakout of this zone will make $87,500 the key level. Sales below these values deactivate the current bullish scenario, at least in the short term.
