The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on December 10, lowering the rate to 3.50%-3.75%.
So what happened? #BTC didn't rise but fell back to the 90k-95k range.
Many people panicked, thinking the bull market was over.
But this is precisely the typical 'Sell the News'. We need to understand the real logic behind it. 👇
Why did it drop? Because of fear.
The market is not afraid of insufficient liquidity right now, but of a 'hard landing' in 2026.
That's why Michael Saylor is desperately shouting at the Abu Dhabi conference: treat BTC as a reserve asset!
He is telling everyone: to combat fiat currency decline, regardless of how interest rates change, BTC is the only lifebuoy. 🌊
But there is a huge expectation gap here.
Arthur Hayes (founder of BitMEX) pointedly stated in his latest blog post: "Fiat liquidity is the tide."
Even with short-term pullbacks, as long as the floodgates open, the water will definitely rise.
Hayes believes that the current decline is the main force utilizing 'recession panic' to wash out positions in preparation for the impact in Q1 2025.
Meanwhile, what has Vitalik Buterin (@VitalikButerin) been busy with this week?
He is discussing Gas Futures and P2P network repairs.
This is interesting—Ethereum is returning from 'speculation' to 'infrastructure'.
What does this mean? It means that #ETH's opportunity lies in technological implementation, while #BTC's opportunity lies in macro liquidity. The logic of both has completely diverged.
What data signals have we seen?
Although prices have dropped, the net outflow of ETFs is not severe. Institutions are not fleeing; it's the retail investors who are.
This week, #Binance launched contracts for Talus and Cysic, indicating that the exchange is still actively paving the way to capture volatility.
My judgment:
The current 90k-95k BTC is equivalent to 40k at the beginning of 2024.
The current panic is the retreat before the next wave.
If you believe Hayes' liquidity theory, now is not the time to cut losses, but rather a golden window for accumulating positions in batches.
Remember: the effect of interest rate cuts has a lag.
The historical 'January Effect' often occurs after Christmas.
The current pain is for the celebration in January next year.
Don't fall before dawn. 💎🙌
If you find this analysis helpful, please retweet and follow me.
In the next tweet, we will delve into why the SOL ecosystem might be the only Alpha moving forward.
