little positive hope ?

 The Fed just quietly restarted QE but they’re calling it something else.
Here’s the full breakdown and how I’m positioning into April 2026

1/x Yesterday's FOMC meeting confirmed two things:
The economy is weakening.
QE officially begins on December 12th.
Powell avoided the word 'QE', but the Fed’s statement makes it clear: the balance sheet starts expanding again next week.

2/x Unemployment ticked up from 4.2% → 4.4%.
That small change forced today’s 25 bps cut and signals the Fed is shifting toward a full easing cycle.
But the cut itself was already priced in at ~89% probability.
The real story today wasn’t rates, it was liquidity.

3/x Rate cuts matter far less than QE.
Crypto moves with liquidity, not the cost of borrowing.
QT drains liquidity → crypto bleeds.
QE adds liquidity → crypto recovers.
Yesterday was the first confirmed liquidity expansion since 2021.

4/x The key reveal was the new paragraph in the FOMC statement.
The Fed will begin buying short-term Treasuries 'as needed to maintain ample reserves.'
This is QE.
They’re just calling it Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs).

5/x The Fed followed up with the real number:
$40B/month of Treasury bill purchases.
Starting December 12.
Running at this pace until April.
After April, purchases slow but QE does NOT reverse.
QT is over.

6/x Why now? Liquidity hit a breaking point.
Reverse Repo Facility drained from $2T → near $0.
Banks began tapping the Standing Repo Facility.
Fed funds rate drifted to the top of the target range.
This is exactly what happened before the 2019 repo crisis.
The Fed had to act.

7/x What does this mean for #Bitcoin?
From Dec to Apr, U.S. liquidity will rise by ~$160B.
That’s enough for:
A $BTC rebound.
A retest of the 50W SMA.
A relief rally in altcoins.
But it is not enough to create new ATHs on its own.

8/x The big wildcard is the Treasury General Account (TGA).
The TGA currently holds $937B, this is negative liquidity.
If the Treasury unwinds even $90B, total liquidity rises toward $5.85T.
If the proposed Tariff Dividend passes in 2026, that’s another $215B-$450B injection.
That’s when things get explosive.

9/x Liquidity required for $BTC to reclaim highs:
$BTC only makes new highs when U.S. and global liquidity trend upward together.
Base QE gets us a rebound.
TGA + tariff stimulus is what gets us an uptrend.
Without those, BTC likely stalls at major resistance.

10/x My base case into April:
QE drives a BTC bounce.
$BTC retests the 50W SMA.
Alts recover slowly.
No new ATH unless liquidity expands further.
I remain 80% $BTC / 20% alts but I am trading alts, not holding them long-term yet.

11/x How I'm trading it:
Short-term alt rotations.
2-3 week holds.
Grid bots for volatility
Profits rotated back into $BTC
The real trend decision comes in April when QE slows and TGA decisions become clearer.

12/x Final thoughts before I wrap up:
QE is confirmed. The liquidity trend has turned. $BTC and alts finally have a real tailwind.
But this is a bounce setup, not a confirmed bull market.
Stay flexible. Follow liquidity. Adjust in April.

This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and high risk. Do your own research.
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