Raoul Pal today directly tore apart the underlying logic of the entire cryptocurrency market at Solana Breakpoint:
"Cryptocurrency is not a technology asset, nor a speculative asset—
It is a macro asset.
In a nutshell, it made countless people realize:
The price of cryptocurrency is not determined by on-chain activity, projects, or halving.
Instead, it is driven by the global debt cycle, monetary policy, and demographic structure.
And his most ruthless viewpoint is:
**→ This bull market will not end in 2025
→ The real peak will be at the end of 2026**
This is not a call to action, but rather the result derived from his global macro model.
Here is the real 'explosive point logic' of this perspective.
I｜Why is 2026 the peak? Because population determines debt, debt determines currency, currency determines asset prices
Raoul Pal puts a macro iron law very plainly:
“Decreasing labor force → Economic growth slows down → Debt/GDP rises → The government must monetize debt.”
What does it mean?
✔ Fewer people → Labor shortage → GDP growth slows
✔ GDP slows down → Debt ratio rises
✔ Debt rises → Must print more money to maintain system operation
What the world is experiencing now is not a cyclical problem,
Is structural shrinkage of the population.
Population decline means:
Debt crises will become more frequent
Currency depreciation will become more common
Liquidity injection will become more aggressive
And this kind of long cycle,
Exactly every 5.4 years forms a complete peak.
The past three crypto bull markets have perfectly matched this cycle.
So he said:
“The main reason for the bull market has never been the halving, but the debt cycle itself.”
II｜In the next 12 months, the world will print 8 trillion USD? This is not stimulus, it's maintaining a lifeline
Raoul's second critical point:
In the coming year, the world needs 8 trillion USD liquidity to 'keep the system alive'.
Note, he didn't say:
“The Federal Reserve wants to stimulate the economy.”
But rather:
“The maturity of debt is too large, must be monetized, otherwise a global default crisis will explode.”
That is to say:
The Federal Reserve does not want to inject liquidity
Is a must to inject liquidity
That's also why:
U.S. rate cuts
China's easing
Europe plays dead
Japan lifts yield control
U.S. Treasury issuance hits a record high
The world simultaneously releases a signal:
Money must be printed.
And as long as liquidity begins to expand,
BTC can't bear much.
III｜Why does BTC's decline today not affect the logic of the 2026 peak?
Because short-term fluctuations belong to:
Structural selling pressure
Macro noise
Leverage liquidation
Political interference
But the long-term trend depends on:
**→ Liquidity cycle
→ Global debt growth rate
→ Currency depreciation range
→ Institutional allocation demand**
These things won't change because of a K-line.
That's why Raoul said:
“The cycle has passed the trough and is entering the rising phase.”
And the volatility, spikes, and weakness we see now,
It's just the 'energy accumulation period' in the big cycle of the bull market.
Similar to:
2019
2016
2012
Each round is:
Weak in the front → Explosive in the middle → Peak at a further position.
IV｜Why hasn’t the altcoin season come yet? Because the business cycle is 'bottoming out', not 'topping out'
Raoul mentioned a key point that many people overlook:
“The strength and weakness of altcoins/BTC depends on the business cycle.”
The business cycle hits the bottom → Risk appetite gradually warms up → Funds dare to flow from BTC to altcoins.
This means:
✔ BTC rises in advance → Absorbs most institutional allocation demand
✔ ETH will follow later → Entering the second phase of the market
✔ Altcoins explode at the end → Synchronize with the recovery of the business cycle
That is to say:
The altcoin season hasn't even started.
This round of altcoin cycle may not be in 2025Q1,
But is closer to 2025Q4 – 2026Q2.
This also conforms to historical patterns:
Altcoins are always the craziest in the second half of the bull market.
**V｜A conclusion that can change cognition:
Crypto market isn't four years, but a 5.4 year natural cycle**
Raoul's judgment is very critical:
**→ “The market always thought it was a four-year halving cycle, but it actually isn't at all.
What truly drives crypto is the global debt cycle.”**
The last three bull markets:
2011 → 2016
2016 → 2021
2021 → 2026?
You will find:
Not four years,
But it's 5.4 years.
The halving cycle is just a 'coincidence',
The real driving force is:
Debt → Monetization → Liquidity release → Risk assets soar
And Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana—
Is precisely the type most sensitive to liquidity among all risk assets.
That's why Raoul said that heartfelt statement:
“Cryptocurrency is essentially a macro asset.”
Understanding this sentence,
You won't be influenced by short-term fluctuations in your judgment of long-term trends.
Writing this, I suddenly realized:
Everything about the past three weeks:
“BTC can't rise”
“Why hasn’t the altcoin season come yet”
“Is the bull market over?”
These discussions have a common point:
Everyone is using the halving cycle to guess the future.
But Raoul Pal reminds us from the most macro perspective:
The cycle of crypto is not determined by blockchain, but by the global economy.
And what determines the cycle of the global economy is not sentiment, but debt.
Once you look at the market from this dimension,
You will understand:
The current volatility is a 'warm-up' before the super cycle in 2026.
In the next two years,
The market will be much larger than imagined.$BNB
