Introduction - The market is sometimes as quiet as a still pond, and sometimes it can suddenly stir up huge waves. You never know whether the next moment will bring a rebound or a dive, but what you can learn in the fluctuations is how to find your own rhythm between emotions and trends. The rise and fall of the market is not frightening; what is frightening is being swayed by emotions. And true investors have always sought clarity in chaos and maintained their composure amidst volatility. Believe that there will be a rainbow after the storm!
Dear friends, good morning! Bitcoin and Ethereum staged a rise before falling back in the early hours. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates as expected but hinted that the threshold for the next rate cut would be higher! Everything was within expectations... In the early morning meeting, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, lowering the target range for the benchmark interest rate to 3.50%-3.75%. However, their willingness for further rate cuts is not strong, and they indicated that the 'magnitude and timing' of future cuts will depend on changes in the economic outlook. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is preparing to expand its balance sheet again by purchasing short-term U.S. Treasury bonds to alleviate pressure in the overnight lending market.
Although the 25bp interest rate cut and the Federal Reserve's bond buying are beneficial for the market, it also conveys the signal that it will be difficult to continue cutting rates in January. Bitcoin has shown a high and then a drop, consistent with my previous thoughts. During the session, Bitcoin reached nearly 94500 before falling, currently around 92000, and Ethereum also rebounded to about 3450 before falling back to 3320, erasing the gains made during the meeting.
The macro interest rate cut benefits have temporarily run their course. Technically, Bitcoin's price has not broken through the upper daily chart level and is still under pressure from the upper boundary. The same goes for Ethereum, facing resistance from the daily MA60 moving average and falling back again. In the short term, after the bulls have exhausted their volume, the MACD is shrinking, and the RSI indicator is running towards the oversold zone. Today, during the daytime, it is expected to continue to fall and repair, so we can first look at the strength of the pullback. Bitcoin has short-term support at 91000 and 90000. If it strongly breaks below 90000 in the repair, this round of rebound may end early. Short-term resistance is at 93500 and 94500. For Ethereum, the short-term support still focuses on 3220 and 3150 positions, while the short-term resistance remains at 3400 and 3450 positions.
On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is favorable, but the difficulty of cutting rates in January has increased significantly. While the Federal Reserve's bond purchases are a major benefit, it takes time, and it's uncertain if it can be sustained. What should we do next? I believe that adjustments at the end of the year will correct the big trend, so there may be another deep pullback. This Friday, several Federal Reserve officials will speak, and next week the non-farm data will be released; let's see if we can get more information! Focus on this!
Short-term Bitcoin suggestions for reference:
1. Place long positions near the 91000-91000 area, target 92000-92500
2. Place short positions near the 93500-94000 area, target 92500-92000
Short-term Ethereum suggestions for reference:
1. Place long positions near the 3220-3150 area, target 3220-3260
2. Place short positions near the 3400-3450 area, target 3320-3250
[Warm reminder: The market changes rapidly; suggestions are for reference only. For more real-time communication, you can contact via public account private message.]
I really like what Siddhartha Gautama Buddha said: 'No matter who you meet, they are the person who is meant to appear in your life, not by chance; they will definitely teach you something.'
Original by the author, thank you for your attention, the next issue will be even more exciting......
If you've made it this far, please stretch out your little hand to give a thumbs up.
