Bitcoin, gold, and silver saw a sudden strengthening on Tuesday, on the eve of what appears to be a new rate cut by the Fed.
The pioneering crypto, as well as the two safe-haven assets, Gold and Silver, could face volatility in response to the Fed's decision on interest rates, even if the price of XAG exceeds $60/oz for the first time in history, with an increase of +108% in 2025.
Key price targets for Bitcoin, XAU, and XAG ahead of the Fed's rate cut
All eyes are on the Fed's interest rate decision expected tomorrow and on Jerome Powell's subsequent press conference. This is one of the most important macroeconomic events for Bitcoin and safe-haven assets this week.
CME FedWatch Tool data shows that traders see an 87.6% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates.
An interest rate cut by the Fed is generally a positive factor for Bitcoin, as it injects liquidity into financial markets. Gold is usually the asset that benefits first and most directly from rate cuts, while silver tends to follow gold with a delay and then outperform it when the strong reflation phase begins. That’s why silver often makes violent bullish moves after cuts, once momentum strengthens.
Gold reacts first and in a more predictable manner.
Bitcoin benefits as liquidity increases.
Silver often becomes the winner in terms of momentum in the advanced phase.
Based on the current price trend, however, the markets have already started to price in the event, with traders anticipating an interest rate cut now seen as almost certain.
Bitcoin approaches $100,000 ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision.
The price of Bitcoin is showing an upward trend and consolidating in a parallel ascending channel after the low reached on November 21 at $80,600. As long as the price remains within this technical structure, the possibilities for further increases remain alive.
According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator, momentum is growing, which could push BTC even higher. The position above the 50 threshold indicates strong buying pressure, but much still hangs in the balance because these levels are also subject to potential bearish takeovers.
The price of Bitcoin finds immediate resistance at the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $97.015, an obstacle on the way to the most significant Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8%, located at $98.018.
This would represent a key entry point for late bullish investors: if the Bitcoin price decisively surpassed this level with strong volumes, it would indicate the strengthening of the trend. Such a bullish scenario would see the pioneering crypto stretch towards $103.399, corresponding to the 50% median level.
In a strongly bullish scenario, BTC could reach the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, signaling a very solid trend.
On the contrary, if the 61.8% Fibonacci level holds as resistance, it would be the signal of a possible trend reversal.
If sellers were to act at current levels, the 78.6% Fibonacci level could give way as support, triggering a decline of BTC out of the parallel ascending channel.
A similar orientation could lead the price of the pioneering crypto towards the support area at $80,600, with a drop that would be nearly 15% from current values.
Gold may be in a classic reload zone phase (Stage A).
The price of gold could drop towards the lows of $4.199 and potentially violate the rising support trendline before reversing course upwards. According to the RSI, momentum is waning, putting the price of XAU at risk of correction.
However, with the RSI still above the 50 level and a solid support generated by the confluence of the 50 and 100-day EMAs (at $4.202 and $4.203 respectively), the price may have the strength to rise.
Key support is found in the area between $4.178 and $4.192. If this zone holds, the bullish structure would remain intact.
Meanwhile, key resistance is at $4.241. A decisive breakout above this seller congestion level could trigger a price acceleration.
In a favorable scenario, targets would become $4,260 and, in the most bullish scenario, $4,300, aiming for a potential new all-time high (ATH) at $4,381.
Therefore, current price levels could represent a classic reload zone, where any pullback would become an opportunity for late-arriving bullish investors.
Silver has risen 6 times compared to the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year.
The price of silver is experiencing one of the strongest bull runs in stock market history, marking growth six times that of the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year. The XAG/USD price is now on track to register the largest gain over 12 months since 1979.
After reaching a new all-time high at $60,794, silver is at price discovery levels, with potential for further increases.
On the 15-minute chart below, the XAG/USD price shows a clear bullish continuation breakout. The silver price decisively surpassed the previous range high near $58.83 and has launched into price discovery, confirming the transition from consolidation to expansion.
All major EMAs (50/100/200) are now aligned upwards and pointing upwards, indicating strong consistency and strength of the trend in the short term.
The momentum supports the movement, as highlighted by the RSI above 73, indicating strong buying pressure. However, this RSI position also signals a possible overheating in the short term, with the risk of a slight pullback or consolidation before a new continuation.
From a structural point of view, the old resistance between $58.80 and $59.00 now acts as the first support, while the next psychological and technical target is between $61.00 and $61.50.
As long as the silver price remains above the rising EMA 50 (red), the trend remains oriented to buy-the-dip, with an increase in downside risk only in the event of a sustained return below $59.00.
