December Gold Market and Fundamentals

The overnight gold daily line closed with a small bearish candle featuring a long upper shadow, overall not forming an effective breakout, and the price is still operating in the middle-upper range of the daily Bollinger Bands, in a relatively high-level oscillation and consolidation pattern. The breakthrough of previous highs and lows will become the core signal for confirming subsequent trends.

From a fundamental perspective, the November ADP private employment data recorded the largest decline in over two and a half years, with its weak performance mainly driven by layoffs in small businesses. However, official data shows that the overall scale of layoffs remains low, and this data has inherent discrepancies with the private employment statistics published by the Labor Department. Therefore, the market and academia generally believe that it is inappropriate to overinterpret the weakness of the ADP data.

The November ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, released concurrently, was 52.6, basically flat compared to October's 52.4, with service sector activity remaining stable. This trend ensures the fundamental resilience of GDP data and keeps inflation levels within the current range. Considering the current macro environment, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has strong certainty, and the market's pricing for a rate cut is gradually becoming more complete.

It is important to note that the Federal Reserve is about to undergo a leadership transition. Against this backdrop, the December monetary policy meeting is likely to present a policy combination of "dovish rate cut landing + hawkish risk warning." From the perspective of asset pricing logic, the current gold market has already partially priced in rate cut expectations. A short-term correction is essentially a technical adjustment before the trend starts. With the implementation of the rate cut policy and the ongoing accumulation of gold by global central banks providing medium- to long-term support, the probability of gold prices breaking out of the oscillation range and initiating an upward trend will significantly increase. $BTC #特朗普加密新政