A complete and objective analysis of Irys based on the latest publicly available information (as of December 4, 2025), excluding all links and citation marks, providing you with the most essential parts directly.
1. Project Essence and Positioning
Irys is a Layer-1 chain that focuses on 'permanent storage + programmable data,' essentially an upgraded version of the Arweave ecosystem.
What it aims to do is very simple: allow data not only to be stored permanently but also to run logic directly on the chain (such as AI agent memory, automatic royalty distribution, on-chain game saves, etc.). This conceptually goes further than pure storage solutions like Arweave, Filecoin, and Celestia, representing a new narrative of the 'data execution layer.'
The technology has no major issues; TPS, fees, and stability are normal after the mainnet launch, and even perform better than many new L1s.
2. Token Economics and Actual Circulation (The Most Fatal Part)
Total Supply: 10 billion
TGE Circulation: About 2.3 billion (23%)
FDV peaked at $380 million, currently falling back to about $130-150 million.
Key Issues:
• Airdrop of 400 million tokens (accounting for 4% of total supply), claimed to be for the community, but 20% was consumed by one entity using 897 new wallets (all funded in bulk from Bitget), immediately dumping the price after claiming.
• Galxe tasks have been ongoing for six months, with over 300,000 people checking in daily, and the project team has extracted over $5.2 million in fees, but the actual airdrop to old users is pitifully small (most people received 100-200 tokens, worth $3-6).
• Binance Alpha's 75,000 users have done nothing, each receiving 1,200 tokens (about $40) for free.
• LP has neither been burned nor locked for a long time, and can be withdrawn at any time.
In summary: A lot of money has been circulated, user contributions have been harvested, and the actual benefits have almost entirely gone into the pockets of insiders and large holders.
3.css Current State of Community Trust
The community is currently overwhelmingly negative:
• Old users complain of 'soft scams' and 'two years for a pile of crap'.
• Many people directly say 'team = new community', believing insiders have already taken everything they can through various means.
• Discord and Telegram have lost a significant portion of their user base, and those remaining are mostly complaining or preparing to sue.
5. Risk Level (Real Evaluation for Retail Investors)
Short Term (1-3 months): High risk, probability of further dumping is very high.
Medium Term (3-12 months): Extremely high risk, unless the team immediately takes major actions to regain trust (public wallets, compensating old users, burning LP, recovering Sybil tokens), otherwise it will be hard to turn things around.
Long Term (1 year later): There is a 10-20% chance of surviving through technology, but it will likely become a niche chain, with prices lingering below $0.01.
6. Conclusion (Straightforward Version)
Technology: 80 points
Narrative: 75 points (AI + permanent data still has some heat)
Team Integrity: 20 points (current performance)
Community Trust: Close to 0
Investment Cost-Effectiveness: Currently extremely low, considered a 'dumping' asset.
Suggestions for Average Users:
Those who have received airdrops should run quickly; those who haven't should not spend more money to buy in. If you want to gamble on technology, you can wait for the price to drop to $0.005-0.008 to see if there is a bottom-fishing opportunity, but it is highly likely that even this price cannot be maintained.
In simple terms: Irys is currently a flashy car with an empty gas tank that has been secretly drained; it looks like it can still run, but it could stall at any moment.
