Yesterday, HS coin (the mainstream asset we talk about every day in our circle) was smashed down by a big bearish candlestick. My backend was directly flooded with DMs asking, 'Are we going to cut losses?' Don't panic! First, put down your stop-loss button. Today, I will share with you my experience as a 10-year crypto veteran: this drop is not the end of the world; it's an opportunity for us to 'pick up cheap' assets, but the premise is that you must avoid pitfalls!
Let's break down the news: 'ETF good news is coming' - is it just a pipe dream? I dare say 80% of people didn't understand these two details.
Recently, a certain established European crypto bank hinted that the SEC has a lot of ETF applications piled up. Many people rushed in after reading this - brother, don't be fooled by the phrase 'batch approval'! I reviewed the patterns of ETF rollouts over the past three years and found two key pieces of information, which I will reveal to you today:
First, 'batch approval' is real, but the 'time lag' can be deadly. The government shutdown has already lasted over 40 days, and waiting for the end of the shutdown before going through the approval process will take at least a month and a half at the fastest - last year, it took a full 2 months for the Bitcoin ETF to go from rumor to reality! The 'good news' at this stage is like someone telling you 'there will be food tomorrow' when you are hungry; it can't alleviate the current hunger and won't support a declining market.
Second, institutions are 'waiting for a window', retail investors shouldn't act as 'pioneers'. The institutional research data I just received shows that 70% of asset management institutions said, 'as long as the ETF is approved, they will increase their positions within a week' - this means at least hundreds of billions are waiting outside, but they are very shrewd: now that MACD has crossed down, institutions won't act as 'the bag holders'! You think you're picking the bottom, but in fact, you are just carrying the decline for others.
Let me put it this way: a delay in good news does not mean the good news has lost its effectiveness; the more it drops now, the more it looks like a 'washout' - scaring away those retail investors who can't hold on. When the approval is actually granted, the market may open high with a gap, and by then you might not be able to chase it! What we need to do is 'wait for signals', not 'guess the bottom', don't go against your money.
Looking at the technical side: the 1-hour K-line is like a 'slide'; can the support level hold? I have marked it clearly for you.
Open the 1-hour chart of HS Coin; I don't need to say much, you can see that after the MACD white and yellow lines crossed down below the 0 axis, there has been no turning back, and the green bars are still expanding - this indicates that the selling pressure has not yet eased! Those 'small rebounds' in the short term are all 'false signals', don't think about 'picking the bottom at the lowest point'; you don't have that luck, and neither do I.
Today I will give you two key points, write them down in your notebook:
Resistance level: 0.19→0.220.19 was our 'safety cushion' (the lower edge of the oscillation platform) last week, and now it has directly become a 'roadblock' - if the price can't even push above 0.19, it indicates that the bulls are completely out of power, and next they will definitely test the support.
Support level: 0.14→0.120.14 is this year's 'iron bottom' that has not been broken in 3 declines. Last time it dropped to this level, the trading volume suddenly increased (this is a stabilization signal), but can it hold this time? It depends on the speed of the decline: if it 'drops quickly' to 0.14, there might be a rebound opportunity; if it 'gradually declines' to 0.14, it is very likely to break down and touch 0.12.
By the way, many brothers have told me, 'I am trapped above 0.20; if I cut, I fear it will rise, and if I don't cut, I fear it will fall' - isn't that the 'catch-22' we often talk about? Don't worry, I will give you a prescription later.
Retail survival guide: 3 tricks to avoid 'halfway up the mountain', I used this trick last year to reduce my losses by 50%.
I never play hindsight; everything I provide today is actionable methods that can be implemented, and following them can at least reduce your losses by 30%:
First, with small funds, 'test the waters', don't go all-in. Want to pick the bottom? Only use 10% of your total funds for a trial position at the support level - for example, buy a little near 0.14; if it breaks 0.13, immediately cut losses. Last year, I tried a position at 0.14, and when it broke 0.13, I decisively cut, although I lost 1%, but I avoided the big pit that followed when it fell below 0.12; if it stabilizes and rebounds, then gradually increase the position - this is called 'using small risks to win large opportunities'.
Second, only enter the market when MACD 'golden cross confirmation' occurs; absolutely avoid the death cross. Don't just watch the 'green bars shorten' and think a rebound is coming; you must wait for the white line to steadily cross above the yellow line, and for the MACD to return above the 0 axis, this is the 'true rebound' signal! Last November's market was a series of 15 consecutive days of increases after the golden cross, many people around me entered the market at this signal and made at least 20%.
Third, pay close attention to 'two time points'. One is the announcement of the end of the government shutdown (which could happen at any time), and the second is the SEC's 'document update' regarding ETFs - around these two time points, there will definitely be 'abnormal movements' in the market. I monitor the market every day, and if there is news, I will immediately share it in the comments section, so you won't miss the moment of a price surge.
Finally, let me say something from the heart: endure a little in the short term, and there will be rewards in the long term.
To be honest, HS Coin is likely to fall further in the short term, and it will most likely test the support at 0.14 first; in extreme cases, it might touch 0.12, but the decline itself is not the risk; blindly trying to pick the bottom is the real risk! Last year, when it fell to 0.12, many people cut at the lowest point, and the result was that when the ETF rumor came out, it shot directly to 0.25; the current market is too similar to that time.
What you lack is not 'analytical ability', but 'real-time reminders': when should you add to your position? When should you cut losses? Should you chase after ETF news? All of these require someone to monitor the market and give signals.
Every morning at 8 o'clock, I will update the latest ETF dynamics and support level changes in the comments section. Brothers who reduced their positions near 0.15 yesterday, are you now secretly ...
