$BTC The rebound is so strong~ Is it strong? Let's short it

From the hourly level, the candlestick trend has completely experienced a three-push decline before being reversed. The current price is in an upward movement.

From the 4-hour perspective, the downtrend here is very strong with almost no rebounds, only some meaningless upper shadows. From the price action, the decline from above 90000 is very strong, and such a strong decline will at least trigger a second downward test or continuation of the decline.

The reversal of the trend is also a breakout, a special kind of breakout. Just like 80% of breakouts in a consolidation zone will fail, trend reversals often fail as well. The probability of success starts to increase only after the second attempt, so we continue to gamble on false breakouts.

Operation:

Place a short order at BTC88399, this position is the 50% level of the 4-hour downtrend and also a resistance level for the pattern. Moreover, if you look at the 15-minute smaller level, the rise here is still in an upward wide channel, set a stop loss of 1500 points, do not add to the position, just take the loss at the level, which means a stop loss at 90100.

I have already made a long position at 83700 once, so I will not do it again here. There is a probability that the second decline will break the support, so place the order between 81100-80300 for pattern support.

Note: If the short position is lost, then the trading method must change. Look for a low long position as the price rises to 98000 for liquidation. This is the plan after a loss; anything can happen in the market. There may be news in the late night, so for this short position, I will use a regular 80% position. When there is news, I often reduce my position size.

Continue to gamble!