Bitcoin will form a bottom around $55,000, believes analyst nicknamed Sykodelic. He also dismissed predictions of a price drop to $35,000 by 2026.
Earlier, such a scenario was suggested by a crypto investor and trader under the pseudonym Philakone.
«It's crazy that people consider this impossible. Bitcoin could drop to $35,000–$40,000 by December 2026. All bear markets lasted about 365 days — exactly from peak to trough — in 2014, 2018, and 2022. And during each of them, cryptocurrencies fell by 78–86%», he noted.
A drop of Bitcoin to $35,000 from current levels would mean a 72% correction. This has happened before — the asset fell 77% from a peak of $69,000 in November 2021 to $15,000 exactly a year later.
Sykodelic considers such assumptions 'absolute nonsense.' According to him, such deep corrections are only possible when the expansion level — measured, for example, by RSI — 'creates appropriate conditions.'
The expert emphasized that the price of Bitcoin has never breached the lower boundary of the Bollinger band on a monthly timeframe.
«If the current rise has been the weakest in history, then why should the subsequent fall be the strongest? Essentially, if we are dealing with a full-blown bear market and the monthly candle closes below the central line of the [Bollinger] indicator, then the maximum correction target will be in the $55,000 area,» he noted.
Derive founder Nick Forster pointed out a change in the structure of the options market: the imbalance indicator has shifted towards puts.
«The concentration of open interest at the strike prices of $84,000 and $80,000 with expiration on December 26 indicates that traders are actively hedging against further declines,» the expert stated.
In his assessment, such a configuration of derivatives reflects a high probability that Bitcoin will enter 2026 below $80,000.
«There is no reason to believe that the decline has ended. The market is preparing for increased volatility: short-term indicators are ahead of long-term ones, which traditionally signals expectations of sharp price movements ahead of the New Year,» summarized Forster.
The founder of the cryptocurrency exchange VALR, Farzam Ehsani, believes that the current market fluctuations demonstrate a 'structural vulnerability.'
«The drop below $90,000 is a result of a combination of fragile market architecture and depleted liquidity. Even a moderate macro shock can now cause an disproportionately strong reaction due to insufficient depth in the order book,» he explained in a comment to CoinDesk.
In his opinion, if the current dynamics are maintained, Bitcoin may test the range between $60,000 and $65,000. At the same time, at these levels, a revival of interest from major institutional players, who view the correction as an opportunity to accumulate, is possible, the expert noted.
Current situation
At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading around $86,900 — 30.9% lower than the all-time high of $126,080.
One-hour chart BTC/USDT (Binance, TradingView)
Against the backdrop of the decline, the popular market sentiment indicator has returned to the 'extreme fear' zone.
The liquidation volume over the past day amounted to $471 million, of which $351 million accounted for long positions.
Almost all cryptocurrencies in the top 10 by market capitalization showed restrained dynamics.
