The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has soared to 87.4%! Is this wave of expectations about to be 'nailed down'?
CME Federal Reserve Watch latest data: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has directly hit 87.4%, leaving only a 12.6% chance of maintaining the current rate; the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut in January next year is also 23.2%.
This expectation is basically 'set in stone' — the certainty of liquidity easing is increasing, which is a clear positive for the crypto market. But there’s a contradiction: on one hand, there is strong expectation of rate cuts, and on the other hand, whales continue to deposit BTC into exchanges, creating selling pressure. The short-term market is likely to be 'supported by the positive news but with significant volatility'.
Next, we’ll see whether the market digests the positive news and surges before the December meeting, or if it will be suppressed by selling pressure. Do you think BTC can hold its ground against the pressure before this wave of expectations materializes?
