“Such an obvious wash, even a novice like me can see it. Are the seasoned players fools?”
The answer is: seasoned players see it ten times clearer than you do; they don't misunderstand it, they simply don't believe it, nor dare to believe it.
Let me break it down into 4 harsh truths, and you'll understand why the same K-line excites novices but makes seasoned players want to vomit:
1. Seasoned players have been cut by the same script 17 times. In 2021, ZEC went from $40 to $370, washed exactly the same way, then directly halved to $20. In 2023, it happened once more from $25→$65→$28. They have witnessed the outcome of “washing without a rally, just running away,” so when they see $500 in a sideways market now, their first reaction is:
“Is this the same old trick? I'm not buying it this time.”
2. The psychological threshold of seasoned players has completely transformed.
• A novice seeing $500 sideways → “The main force is washing, it will rally soon!”
• A seasoned player seeing $500 sideways → “The main force is offloading, prepare for a crash to $300.” They have been through PTSD (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder), so their conditioned reflex is to run first; running incorrectly is still more comfortable than being cut.
3. The harshest point: seasoned players know the main force is deliberately making it “look very obvious.” The main force wants everyone to understand “this is a wash,” and then wait for everyone to get back in before crashing again. This is called “making the chart lie.” Seasoned players have suffered too much from this “everyone is bullish → collectively buried” scenario, so they choose to do the opposite: “the more obvious, the less they believe.”
In summary:
Novices lose due to ignorance; seasoned players lose due to knowledge.
If you can understand it now, it's because you haven't been cut enough; once you get cut a few times, you'll be just like them—
When you see a perfect wash structure, your first reaction will also be to run.
So don’t laugh at seasoned players; they don’t misunderstand,
They just can’t afford to bet on “this time it’s real” anymore.
And the main force profits the most by exploiting this psychological gap of “novices dare to believe, seasoned players don’t dare to believe,” transferring chips from seasoned players to novices (and you), and then pulling off another round of harvesting.
If you still dare to hold your position stubbornly, it’s actually because you still retain the last shred of naivety of “believing the chart will tell the truth.”
Cherish this naivety well, because it won’t accompany you for long.😅$ZEC
