You observed correctly — today $ZEC surged to a high of $382.40 (+10.94% 24h) in the morning, but plummeted back to around $320 in the closing (current price $330.34, CoinGecko real-time), with an intraday range of $302.75-$382.40, overall -6.20% in 24h. This is not random; it is a classic 'fishing rebound' by the main force: a surge to lure bulls into chasing (testing buy orders), then a drop to harvest (liquidating positions concentrated at $320-$350). Trading volume $1.54B (+29% daily increase, but a weekly shrink of 16.8%), RSI 47.93 neutral to weak (close to oversold), MACD shows weak bearish divergence but bullish divergence, 200-day MA at $516 trending up, support at $290-$320 stabilizing. Fear & Greed at 24 (extreme fear turning neutral), volatility at 19.11%, 60% green plate over 30 days.
X latest updates: Few posts, mixed bear and bull battle — some shout 'ZEC L1 loser -11.74%', others retort 'buy the dip, privacy super cycle', some say 'shielded pool dips while rising, institutions buying low', some curse 'ZEC scam, FOMO blood loss -50%', and others ask 'ZEC pulling back, too many sellers at $300'. FUD is heavy, but whale posts suggest 'normalization of crypto privacy'.
Monthly: November +30.7% ($420 pulled to $750 then corrected 56% to $330), 15 days post-halving, shielded pool at 30% (4.9M ATH) + on-chain activity +150% hard bottom. Latest forecast (updated 12/3): today high $459 (+39%), this week $360-$389 (+9-18%), December average $660 (high $715, low $605), year-end $700-$776 (+112%+), 2030 $4,678 (extreme).
Main force intention: fishing drop, thoroughly cleaning the market.
Mixed bias accumulation: early surge to $382 to lure in (cleaning bullish float), tail drop to $320 to clear the tail of liquidated positions (24h $18.8M, bulls 78%). Whales buying low at $300-$320 (+$51K, 3 new whales), OI steady at $1.28B, Winklevoss $58M + Cypherpunk $50M locked 5% unchanged, Grayscale AUM $196M + 228% YTD hoarding in the backend. Funding +0.01% grinding (L/S 0.55). X suggests 'shielded pool dip rises, institutional arb', today's intention: low volume + false bullish lure, miner selling pressure continues, but ETF has an 85% probability of $200M inflow, etc. Trading volume warming up = retail testing signal.
Short-term (1-2 weeks): defend $290-$320 to rebound $421-$459 (+28-39%, probability 55-65%); break $290 to slide to $220-$282 (low probability 35%, pump-dump). Medium to long term: halving + NU6.1 + privacy nuclear explosion, December $509-$660 (+54-100%), year-end $700-$1,394 (+112-323%).
Advice: $330+ low buy window, stop loss at $280. Focus on volume increase ($15B signal) + ETF approval. Rebound fishing, hold on to eat meat.
