BTC is now at a critical decision point!\n\nThis wave's most crucial weekly pattern in recent months has directly pulled the market into a trend direction 'life and death' situation, with prices breaking below the long-term ascending wedge. This pattern usually indicates trend weakness and may require deep adjustment; however, on the other hand, BTC is firmly holding the lower boundary of the weekly Ichimoku cloud, which is not just a regular support but a super strong trend filter in technical analysis!​\n\nFirst, let's talk about the bearish side: This ascending wedge started forming in early 2024. BTC has created higher points, but the momentum is weakening, and the pattern is tightening.\n\nHistorically, when this pattern breaks below the lower band, it is likely to lead to a sharp drop. Now we can indeed see BTC losing support, with momentum dropping down, and the weekly chart plunging into the cloud, clearly indicating that bulls are losing strength and bears are starting to dominate.\n​\nBut don't panic yet! BTC is testing the lower boundary of the weekly cloud and is trying to rebound. This support is crucial; if it holds the cloud, the macro bullish trend remains; if it breaks, we might face several months of adjustment, and this would be the first macro-level cloud break since 2022, leading to a change in market structure!​\n\nNext, we will look at two scenarios:​\nIf it holds the cloud and rebounds strongly, BTC is expected to surge back above 90,000. The previous breakdown could be a bear 'false breakout' trap, and it could even push to the wedge top of 125,000 - 140,000, indicating institutions are absorbing selling pressure and protecting long-term positions;​\n\nIf it fails to hold and breaks below the cloud, BTC could drop to 77,000, then to 69,000, with the probability of several months of consolidation rising sharply, and the overall market would have to adjust as well.\n\nPanic selling near the support level is normal but also hides long-term accumulation opportunities! Next, we need to watch whether the weekly closing can stay in the cloud, whether the trading volume is strong enough, and the performance after breaking below the wedge trend line.\n\nBTC is stuck at a critical point of tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and the next big direction will be revealed soon!\n\n#比特币波动性 \n#美国加征关税 \n#BTC走势分析