$BTC is down 36% so far

Bitcoin Drops to Seven-Month Low – Key Levels to Watch

$BTC continued its decline on Friday, testing a seven-month low near 82,000 USD as bearish sentiment sweeps across the crypto market. Institutional selling remains elevated, with spot Bitcoin ETFs reporting outflows of 1.45 billion USD for the week ending Thursday — marking the fourth consecutive week of withdrawals. On-chain indicators continue to weaken, suggesting the market has not yet found a bottom. BTC remains vulnerable to further downside in the near term.

On-Chain Signals Turn Bearish

Glassnode’s weekly report highlights a structural shift after BTC decisively broke below 97,000 USD, triggering a drop to 89,000 USD and forming a new low below the standard deviation band (95,400 USD) relative to short-term holders’ cost basis (around 109,500 USD). Most short-term investors are now in the red, a setup historically associated with panic selling and prolonged market weakness. In the short term, 95,000–97,000 USD has flipped into resistance; reclaiming this zone would be an early sign of stabilization.

Realized losses are accelerating, with the 7-day EMA of daily STH losses spiking to 523 million USD — the highest since the FTX collapse. Analysts note that such large-scale loss realization indicates either the need for strong buying absorption or a prolonged accumulation period before balance is restored.

Technical Levels to Watch

On the weekly chart, BTC has lost over 34 percent since its all-time high of 126,199 USD, now trading below the 100-week EMA at 85,389 USD. A weekly close under this EMA could open the door to the next support near 71,769 USD. Daily indicators show extreme oversold conditions (RSI 20) and bearish MACD signals, suggesting bears remain in control. To the upside, short-term resistance sits near 85,000 USD.

In summary, BTC faces significant downside risk, but a recovery above key resistance levels could signal a stabilization phase.

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