The so-called "shanzhai can't fall anymore" essentially means liquidity has dried up, rather than a confirmation of the bottom.

It's like a second-hand house that has been on the market for three years without any interest; the price seems not to have dropped, but that's only because there are no buyers at all. The half-dead horizontal line on the K-line chart is not a solid "bottom support" but rather a signal that the market's heartbeat has stopped — the electrocardiogram has flattened out.

Most people tend to repeat several fatal misunderstandings:

1. Mistaking "no one cares" for "there's nowhere to fall": believing it's a return to value, when in fact the major players have long left the table, leaving only a group of retail investors in the ICU hoping for each other.

2. Treating "breaking even" as a belief: thinking, "Once the bull returns, I'll get out once I'm in the black." But if everyone on board just wants to break even and get off, that vehicle will never come back to pick you up.

3. Always paying for "outdated sentiment": the crypto circle is particularly fond of the new and weary of the old. Capital always chases new narratives (AI, Meme, RWA); those "king projects" in your hands from the last round have long become the digital equivalent of "18th-tier old and dilapidated places" — priced but without a market, only to be left for the next generation.