Market Under Panic Breakdown: $BTC
Following the pressure from US stocks, multiple signals point to the bottom being near.
The current market has entered a panic selling breakdown phase. Combining market correlation characteristics, technical patterns, and funding signals, the core views are as follows:
1. Analysis of Core Market Logic
BTC briefly recovered yesterday before breaking down sharply again. The market can be divided into two phases: the first half is a technical pullback to key support, while the second half is influenced by a significant correction in US stocks, breaking through support levels and forming a breakdown trend.
From the correlation data, the Nasdaq index had a maximum intraday decline of 4.77%, and BTC had a maximum intraday decline of 7.54%. There has been no excessive decline separating from US stocks, highlighting that BTC currently follows the trend of US stock risk assets, with independent market logic yet to be established.
2. Key Judgments and Operational Guidelines on Trading
Disciplinary Verification: Under the premise of strictly following trading rules, yesterday's daily closing price did not fall below the key level of 86500 USD (this price level is the support and resistance swap point after the breakout from the consolidation range six months ago), which has not triggered the preset stop-loss conditions. Funding Signal Reference: The current BTC price has touched core support, while USDT.D (USDT market capitalization ratio) has broken through previous highs. From the historical trend, this indicator rarely sustains upward movement after breaking, usually experiencing a pullback after a spike, indicating a short-term expectation of reverse recovery. Technical Pattern Signal: BTC has formed a triple impulse wave structure, which typically marks the bottom being near - the market's collective force has difficulty pushing prices down significantly. Although the short-term volatility has increased, the extent of the downward movement is gradually narrowing, recorded only at 0.75% and 2.85%, with bearish momentum showing signs of weakening. Position Management Suggestions: The current price is fluctuating near the support and resistance swap point before breaking out of the consolidation range six months ago. If position pressure triggers irrational operational impulses (such as panic selling, blind shorting), leveraged positions may consider moderate stop-loss or hedging to alleviate emotional anxiety and control risk exposure. Personal Operational Strategy: I have positioned some bottom-buying near 89000 USD and plan to observe the 12-hour level trends, clarifying further operational direction in conjunction with volume recovery. #BTC走势分析