On the surface, it all looks like yet another bearish forecast: senior Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone, recalling his partially successful prediction from 2018, predicts a collapse of Bitcoin from current levels to $50,000 and below. But if we set aside emotions and look at the cold numbers of mining profitability, it becomes clear: such statements are not just analysis, but part of a complex game aimed at 'shaking out' weak players before a new surge.
Media noise as a weapon
The story of the "coronadump" in 2020, when Bitcoin crashed from $8000 to $4000, clearly showed: global fears and authoritative forecasts from the media are the perfect tool for creating capitulation panic. It is in such moments that large capital (the "whales") get the opportunity to buy assets from frightened retail investors at fire sale prices. The scenario is repeating now, only the price scales are different.
Key argument: The real price of Bitcoin is its production cost.
All this media hype revolves around a critically important level — the breakeven price for miners. It is here that we transition from speculation to solid economics. And the data for 2025 shows a troubling picture for many.
Let's take the Antminer S19 as an example — once the flagship, now a "workhorse" of medium age that still makes up a significant part of the network's hash rate. Analytics show a strong dependency:
With electricity costs at $0.06/kW·h** (far from the most expensive in the world), the breakeven point for S19 is around **$97,000 per BTC (data from CryptoNews).
· Even by more conservative estimates (HashrateIndex, GoMining), to remain profitable, an S19 owner needs electricity cheaper than $0.08/kW·h**, and ideally — **$0.05/kW·h.
What does this mean in practice?
Simply put, if the price of Bitcoin drops below $80,000**, a significant portion of miners whose electricity costs exceed 5-6 cents are already operating at break-even or at a loss. With a further decline to **$60,000, the wave of equipment shutdowns among those who do not have access to ultra-cheap energy becomes massive.
This is indeed the level of miner capitulation that we observed in 2018-2020, when the boundary was around $6000. The business becomes unprofitable, and it's easier to shut down rigs and buy coins on the exchange than to mine them at a loss.
The conclusion: Why do "whales" need this?
The scenario looks like this:
1. A powerful bearish narrative is injected through authoritative media.
2. The price begins to fall, approaching the coveted mark of $80,000, after which a chain reaction follows.
3. Miners with medium-aged equipment (like the S19), finding themselves at the brink of profitability, are forced to sell their accumulated reserves of bitcoins to cover costs.
4. Their capitulation and sell-offs amplify panic among retail investors, driving the price down even further.
5. Major players, knowing that Bitcoin cannot stay below the cost of production for long, buy assets at the lows.
Thus, the forecast of a drop to $60,000 is not a prediction of the end of Bitcoin, but rather a description of a tactical goal in a short-selling game. It is an attempt to push the price down to a level where the last weak hands give up, in order to then reverse the trend and soar into a new rally on their bones. The astute reader should look not at panic headlines, but at the mining difficulty chart and electricity costs — that is where the true price of Bitcoin lies.
