Hello, crypto enthusiasts! Our main titan, Bitcoin, is testing not only the nerves of investors but also the very foundations of its network — mining. The price trading around $83,600**, is inexorably approaching the psychological and economic mark of **$80,000. For some, this is just a number on a chart, but for miners with outdated equipment, like the Antminer S9, and expensive electricity — this is the beginning of the end, a line beyond which capitulation and forced exit from the game follow.
While weak hands dump assets, the Bitcoin network undergoes natural selection. And the key to understanding what is happening lies in its fundamental mechanism - the halving.
Halving: An economic law that pressures miners
Forget about charts and news for a moment. The main screenwriter of the Bitcoin drama is the halving, written in its code. Approximately every four years, the reward for mined blocks is halved. After the last halving in April 2024, it will amount to only 3.125 BTC.
Let's calculate. With the price of Bitcoin at ~$83,600, the reward for a block is about **$261,250** (3.125 BTC * $83,600). This is the foundation of miners' income. And this foundation becomes more modest with each halving.
What about the fees? The situation here is even harsher. Miners' income from fees has fallen to $300,000 per day - this is an all-time low for 12 months and a meager 1% of their total income. Short-term spikes caused by the fashion for Ordinals and Runes are in the past. The network has returned to its primary function - money transfers, which do not generate high fees.
What does this mean? Mining is becoming a business with a harsh margin, where only the most efficient will survive: those with the latest equipment and access to cheap energy. A drop in price below $80,000 will become the filter that clears the network of weak players, increasing its resilience in the long term.
The world is on fire: Why the 'Alt-season' is delayed
While we wait for the general rally, it's worth looking around. The current period is radically different from everything that came before. The era of COVID lockdowns and financial crises has given way to an era of open military conflicts and a global reshuffling of spheres of influence.
In such times, large, 'smart' capital does not seek adventures. It seeks shelter and proven assets. It is indifferent to risky altcoins with low liquidity. Its focus is on quality and reliability.
This is why we see concentrated interest in a narrow range of assets that have already proven their worth:
· Bitcoin (BTC) is digital gold, the main safe-haven asset.
· Ethereum (ETH) is the foundation of DeFi and Web3, a well-established ecosystem.
· Solana (SOL) and BNB are tokens of the largest and most liquid exchange ecosystems.
· XRP is an asset with a clear, albeit controversial, regulatory status, used by institutions.
And where are the others? The overwhelming majority of altcoins, such as Zcash, remain the province of speculation for a narrow group of whales. Without an influx of fresh capital from outside, their season will not come.
What is the bottom line?
1. Pressure on miners is not a collapse, but a healing process. The Bitcoin network is undergoing a stress test, cutting out the inefficient. It is painful but necessary.
2. Silence on altcoins is a consequence of global instability. Capital is conservative and predictably flows into liquid and proven assets.
3. The spring is compressed. Record volumes of stablecoins ($72+ billion) on exchanges are not just a number. This is the potential for a surge that awaits its moment when the macro and geopolitical dust begins to settle.
The current market phase is not a sprint but a marathon for endurance. Strong players use it for accumulation and redistribution. The weak panic and drop out of the race, never reaching the finish line, which, as history shows, always comes after the darkest night.
Hang in there, crypto enthusiasts. Remember that cold calculation and patience always triumph over emotions.
Let's keep our emotions in check.
