🆘BTC Plummets: Is the Bear Market Starting? Or is it a 'Mid-Game Breather' in the Bull Market?
This recent sharp decline in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets has led many to believe that the bull market is over and the bear market is about to begin. However, this is more like a 'mid-game adjustment' in the bull market rather than a long-term reversal.
After the government reopened, the market did not see a strong rebound because the positive news had already been priced in, and once the news was confirmed, it resulted in 'good news having been fully absorbed'.
What truly drives the market is not the White House, but the Federal Reserve. There have been two interest rate cuts, discussions about stopping QT, and restarting QE are coming to the forefront. As long as liquidity returns, there is still more to come for Bitcoin.
This time, $BTC broke below 100,000, and the end-of-year price of 93,714 is being tested again. It looks severe, but on-chain data shows that long-term holders remain stable without panic selling; liquidations mainly come from excessive short-term leverage, whales taking profits at 100,000 USD, combined with the AI hype pullback and tech stock adjustments amplifying volatility. In other words, this is a 'overheating cleanup'.
Wall Street's Tom Lee also judges that the market needs 6–8 weeks to recover, but the long-term trend remains unchanged. He is bullish on AI, BTC, and ETH, emphasizing that now is not the time to flee but to position.
Even Eric Trump has pointed out that Bitcoin is becoming the world's strongest asset, as the US energy advantage is lowering mining costs, and institutions and family offices continue to accumulate.
In summary:
📢This is not the beginning of a bear market, but a mid-game adjustment in the bull market.
↘️Short-term:
Dramatic fluctuations, 100,000 USD is the battleground for bulls and bears.
➡️Mid-term:
Liquidity easing is established, and Bitcoin's pullback is actually a positioning window.
↗️Long-term:
M2, QE, interest rate cut cycle → The bull market still has major performances yet to come.
At a time when noise and signals are both amplifying,
what is most important for investors is to discern which can shake the trend and which is just market noise.
And the current signals are very clear:
👉 The US is moving back towards easing.
👉 Bitcoin's rising cycle has not yet ended.
