The US government shutdown is very likely to end on November 14 (this Friday). The process is currently going smoothly – the Senate has already approved it, the House of Representatives will basically allow it due to previous agreements with the Republicans, and now it just awaits Trump's signature, with a probability as high as 91%. Once officially restarted, all government departments and state-owned enterprises will resume operations, and the funds that have been stuck for 44 days will start flowing into the market.
Yesterday, the market had already 'got excited' in advance. The US stock market opened with a rise, and the Nasdaq soared by 2.27%. The cryptocurrency market also rebounded. After all, everyone saw signs that the shutdown was about to end, and emotions warmed up first.
This wave of capital inflow is not a 'one-size-fits-all' approach; it’s more like turning on a large faucet: first, a rush of water, followed by a slow release over a month. It specifically splits into three paths:
- The fastest are the salaries of civil servants: referring to the situation during the 2018 shutdown, once restarted, the back pay directives can arrive in 1 to 5 days. This money goes directly into banks, effectively adding a wave of 'live water' to the market.
- Slower to arrive are project grants and contractor payments: the money for state governments needs to go through contracts, approvals, and invoicing again, which could take 1 to 6 weeks; subsidies for contractors in healthcare and transportation are similar, taking about 1 to 3 weeks to arrive.
- The bulk of the incoming funds are tax refunds and benefits: once this part is activated, the volume will be large and it will also be an important supplement to liquidity.
In simple terms, once the government reopens and the Treasury starts spending, the market could feel the first wave of liquidity shock in as little as 1 to 5 days; in the following 1 to 6 weeks, there will be a continuous influx of funds. The entire logic is straightforward: the Treasury 'injects liquidity' → bank reserves increase → people have money → a portion flows into the market → liquidity for risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies improves, making prices naturally easier to rise.
Looking at the on-chain activity, the BTC turnover rate has risen significantly today. On one hand, news of the shutdown ending has prompted many investors to take the opportunity to buy the dip; on the other hand, short-term holders who bought during the shutdown are starting to cash out. However, there's no need to worry too much, as the BTC chip structure is very stable, and long-term holders haven't sold much. Moreover, from October 24 to November 7, the number of wallet addresses holding over 10,000 BTC has more than doubled, indicating that 'smart money' is quietly buying in at lower prices. MicroStrategy hasn't been idle either, spending $49.9 million to buy 487 BTC at an average price of $102,557. They now hold a total of 641,692 BTC, with an average cost of only $74,079, giving them a strong position.
On the ETH side, BMNR increased its holdings by 110,000 last week, but this is slower than the average weekly pace of 200,000 in October. Their holding cost has now returned to around $4,000, with an unrealized loss of 11.5%. Fortunately, they haven't stopped—currently, the ETH they hold accounts for 2.9% of the circulating supply, getting closer to the 5% acquisition target. Tom Lee's approach can be described as 'slow but steady'.
Next, once the government shutdown officially ends, the market's attention will likely turn to two matters: first, Trump's tariff policy, and second, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. These two are key factors that will influence the market direction going forward.
