The ADP employment data for the United States released early this morning on #美国ADP数据超预期 caught the market off guard. The addition of 192,000 jobs far exceeded the expected 175,000, but this seemingly impressive report hides some secrets.

Looking closely at the data composition, the new jobs are mainly concentrated in low-wage service industries such as catering and retail, while employment in manufacturing and construction continues to be weak. This structural imbalance has left traders confused—Is the economy actually strengthening or is it showing false prosperity?

The market reaction has been quite divided: the dollar index surged briefly before quickly falling back, and gold initially dropped then rose after the data was released. This contradictory trend reflects the intense struggle between bulls and bears. Some analysts point out that the slowdown in hourly wage growth may indicate that inflationary pressures are easing, which in turn strengthens expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year.

What is even more noteworthy is that after the data was released, the two-year Treasury yield did not rise but fell, a peculiar phenomenon suggesting that smart money may have spotted deeper issues: Can the current job growth be sustained? After all, companies typically only ramp up hiring of temporary workers before a cycle peaks.