#美国ADP数据超预期 The US ADP employment data has just been released, with an increase of 192,000 jobs far exceeding expectations, causing the market to instantly reverse its earlier rate cut frenzy.

The most subtle aspect of this data is that, although the numbers are impressive, a closer look reveals that it's mainly the restaurant and hotel services hiring, while wage growth continues to slow down. It's like a restaurant is busy hiring waitstaff, but the wages offered are becoming increasingly stingy—this kind of "non-inflationary job growth" puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.

Traders are now divided into two camps: one continues to bet on a necessary rate cut in the third quarter, while the other starts to hedge against the risk of "higher and longer". After the data was released, gold fluctuated up and down three times, ultimately choosing to go down, indicating that real funds are more convinced of the latter.

What's even more intriguing is that after the data was released, the two-year US Treasury yield actually fell, a strange phenomenon suggesting that the market believes: the better the employment now, the greater the risk of layoffs in the future. After all, companies tend to expand aggressively only when business is at its peak, just like tech companies at the end of 2021.