1. Historical Timeline Comparison: The cycle never sleeps, but the rhythm has changed.
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is the key indicator for altcoin seasons. History often follows similar rhythms, but each time the tempo is different:
2017: BTC.D plummeted from a high of 85% to 38%, with funds pouring into altcoins. ETH soared from 800 to 1400, and tokens like XRP collectively skyrocketed. Driving factor: ICO craze.
2021: BTC.D fell below 60% again, with altcoins dominating the market. New public chains like SOL and ADA, along with DeFi and NFT concept tokens, became the market leaders. Driving factors: DeFi Summer and NFT frenzy.
2025 (now): Currently, BTC.D is fluctuating in the range of 58%-65%. The altcoin season index briefly surged to 78 in September but plummeted to 29 after the market crash in October. Core contradiction: Macro pressures (high interest rates, liquidity tightening) delayed the full outbreak of the altcoin season. But the law remains: Once BTC.D effectively breaks below 55%, a frenzied bull market like those in 2017 and 2021 is highly likely to repeat!
💎 One-sentence summary: The altcoin season may be late, but it has never been absent. The current fluctuations are the last accumulation of power before the historical explosion.
II. Current trend: Ethereum is accumulating power, and whales are quietly laying out positions.
The market seems calm, but in reality, there are undercurrents. All signs indicate that capital rotation has begun, with Ethereum (ETH) as the current focus.
Despite the price correction of ETH in November, whale addresses continue to accumulate, with a single-month increase in value exceeding $137 million in ETH.
Institutions continue to increase positions through ETFs, with total inflows into Ethereum ETFs reaching $27.6 billion.
The total locked value (TVL) of the entire DeFi ecosystem remains stable at a high of $96 billion.
Core engine: Closely monitor the ETH/BTC exchange rate. Once this ratio starts to rise consistently, it will signal the full launch of the altcoin season.
🐋 Whale perspective: The chips sold off by retail investors in panic are quietly being picked up by institutions and large holders.
III. Retail investor sentiment: Is the day of layout during extreme fear?
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to the range of 21-27, with the market in 'extreme fear.' This sentiment is similar to that after the FTX crash, exposing various human weaknesses of retail investors:
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Regretting not selling at a high, now only wanting to cut losses and claiming 'the altcoin season has been canceled.'
Anchoring effect: The mind is still anchored to the historical high of the coin price, unable to accept the current low price, believing 'it's gone to zero, there's no hope.'
Collective pessimism: Social media is filled with negative emotions, and retail investors are saying 'the bull market is over,' even turning to the traditional stock market.
However, history has proven countless times: when retail investors are overwhelmingly in extreme fear and giving up, it often means the market bottom is forming, which is usually the precursor to a turning point and the moment institutions take advantage to accumulate positions. This kind of pessimism in 2025 is even stronger than in 2021, which could very well be a strong contrarian indicator, suggesting that a turning point is imminent.
😱 When others are greedy, I am fearful; when others are fearful, I am greedy. What should you do when most retail investors are crying out?
IV. Operation suggestions: How to respond to the potential altcoin season
Keep a close eye on key indicators: Closely monitor whether BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) falls below 55%, and whether the ETH/BTC exchange rate can continue to strengthen. This is the key to determining whether the altcoin season has truly started.
Priority layout of leaders: History shows that when the altcoin season arrives, Ethereum (ETH) usually starts first and drives other altcoins. Attention can be given to projects with strong fundamentals, solid community support, and clear narratives.
Manage risks: Altcoins are highly volatile. Do not invest all your funds at once; it is advisable to adopt a phased strategy, laying out in batches during corrections, and set stop-loss orders.
Overcome emotionality: Avoid chasing the price at a high due to FOMO, and do not sell at a loss at the bottom out of fear. Stay calm and adhere to discipline.
Summary
Overall, although the altcoin season of 2025 is somewhat delayed compared to historical cycles, its inherent cyclical driving force has not disappeared. It is more like a spring temporarily suppressed by macro pressures, accumulating energy.
Now, what you need is patience, clear judgment, and the courage to overcome human weaknesses. Opportunities often hide within the fears of the majority.
