Is Bitcoin really going to 90,000? Why is it still falling?
A deep analysis for everyone
Recently, the market has been nervous, with Bitcoin continuously retracing from its highs. The question in the minds of many investors is just one—wasn't a bull market supposed to come? Why is it still falling? In fact, from a macro perspective, this adjustment is not surprising.
1. Global risk assets under collective pressure
On November 4, global capital markets generally declined. The Japanese and South Korean stock markets, which previously reached new highs, have both retraced, and the U.S. stock market also weakened before trading. This is not just a decline in crypto, but a short-term risk-off cycle for overall risk assets.
2. Interest rate cut expectations cool, liquidity expectations tighten
Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve signaled in its interest rate meeting that the certainty of a rate cut in December has decreased again. Powell's speech clearly stated that there is currently no urgent need for a rate cut. The market's previously anticipated liquidity easing has been doused with cold water, and funds naturally tend to be conservative.
3. ETF funds shift, market confidence drops in the short term
Last week, Bitcoin U.S. stock ETFs recorded a net outflow of $802 million, and on November 3 (Monday), another $180 million was withdrawn. ETF funds serve as a barometer for institutions, and this net outflow indicates that short-term institutional positions are reducing leverage, putting pressure on the market.
4. U.S. tariff case triggers policy uncertainty
On November 5, the U.S. Supreme Court will hold oral arguments on the "legality of Trump's global tariffs." If the final ruling overturns Trump's tariff policy, the U.S. trade structure may undergo a readjustment. The market pricing in policy uncertainty will inevitably lead to short-term volatility.
5. Government shutdown becomes a new concern
The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 35th day, tying a historical record. The shutdown has led to limitations on fiscal spending and administrative operations, prompting institutional funds to shift towards defense, and high-risk assets are once again being reduced.
Viewpoint:
This is not a collapse of Bitcoin's own logic, but rather the result of global funds seeking short-term safe havens. The instability of macro liquidity, the outflow of ETF funds, and compounded policy uncertainty have temporarily caused the market to lose its "reason to increase positions." However, the underlying logic of a bull market still exists—as long as macro liquidity stabilizes and ETFs see net inflows again, the market still has the potential to restart its upward trend. $BTC
