As Bitcoin rewards decrease and altcoin trading difficulty skyrockets, the crypto market is facing a structural turning point. Well-known crypto trader Cobie recently analyzed the new reality of high valuations and leverage in a series of replies on X. He pointed out that only by demonstrating expertise, calmness, and patience in valuation and timing can one find an edge in a volatile market.
From Prosperity to Predicament: The Structural Degradation of the Altcoin Market
Cobie believes that the altcoin market is entering an irreversible period of increased difficulty:
More and more smart money is entering the market, and retail investors are becoming smarter, intensifying competition.
Transactions are mostly conducted in leverage and perpetual contracts, with higher risks.
Project valuations are often excessively overvalued, leading to significant token dilution.
Listing completely dilutes the valuation (FDV) capturing all optimistic sentiment, but lacks rational interpretation of prices and valuations.
The pre-issuance expectations were overheated, leading the listing price to reach the 'unsafe zone'.
He compared the two eras, pointing out the current situation where the market has shifted from faith-driven to emotionally leveraged, thus increasing trading difficulty and risk:
Buyers in 2017 would buy spot and hold for weeks or months because they believed in and added to their positions during the rise. However, buyers in 2025 go long on perpetual contracts without checking valuations, selling once losses appear or being forcibly liquidated during a liquidation.
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The culprit of overvaluation: Is it VC greed or retail investors being too foolish?
In response to another user @b3paystax criticizing VC greed for driving up valuations and causing market imbalance, Cobie countered, 'Ultimately, the pricing power still lies in the hands of both buyers and sellers.'
Private markets may show overvaluation, but that does not mean the public market needs to trade at high prices.
He pointed out that retail investors often blindly use VC pricing as a benchmark, believing 'since VCs invest at high prices, this token should be valuable,' leading to prices severely deviating from fundamentals after listing.
He concluded, 'The main reason for the prolonged high valuations is the weak recognition of prices in the public market and the FOMO of the community.'
(Will VCs be eliminated if they don't run with the pack? Is crypto venture capital bidding farewell to the era of issuing tokens and exiting, or will it usher in a major reshuffle?)
The winning strategy of the new era: patience surpasses early entry.
In response to the question, 'How can patience be rewarded?' Cobie suggested, 'Wait for a reasonable price to buy in.'
He cited examples where many popular tokens drop 80% to 90% after listing, then rebound 4 to 8 times. If you enter at the bottom, the returns will definitely exceed those who buy high:
Patiently waiting for the price you are willing to accept to enter is more rewarding than trying to be the 'first buyer.'
He added that this model reflects the investment sentiment cycle of the market: 'Listing is the peak of optimism, decline is the collapse of confidence, and rebound is the reconstruction of optimism.' Only calmness and patience can help one survive in the market cycle.
Explosive targets will still appear, but with reduced frequency.
Cobie also stated, 'Every few years, there will still be assets that can yield several times excess returns.'
When you encounter such landmarks, or a massive influx of new users (ICO or the 2021 pandemic), all of this can be completely forgotten.
He emphasized that such projects are rare but they can always break through cycles, making patience especially important at that time.
When asked whether pre-market perpetual contracts could change price discovery, Cobie replied, 'That's just the emotional expression of a very small number of speculators, with no real supply and demand significance.'
Looking ahead to the post-crypto market: valuation assessment and rational patience become key.
Cobie's argument reveals the turning point of maturity in the crypto market, moving from the frenzy of 'getting rich by early participation' to the reality of 'valuation assessment' and 'rational patience.' In the current situation of high leverage and high FDV, the winners will no longer be the fastest, but the calmest.
This article: Cobie's guide to coping with the sharp reduction of cryptocurrency rewards: patience beats early entry, and valuation ability becomes key. First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.
