• Inflation remains elevated.
• Data indicate that employment and inflation forecasts have stayed largely unchanged since September.
• Before the threat of a government shutdown, the economy was showing signs of resilience.
• A shutdown would put pressure on economic activity, but recovery is expected once operations resume.
• Most long-term inflation expectations remain within target ranges.
• Higher tariffs are pushing up prices on certain goods.
• The Federal Reserve will conclude its quantitative tightening program on December 1.
• Powell emphasized that a rate cut in December is “far from guaranteed.”
• There were many conflicting opinions today.
• Future rate decisions will depend on incoming economic data.
• Today’s rate reduction was a precautionary risk-management measure.
• No decision has been made yet regarding a December rate cut.
• If we see stabilization or strengthening in the labor market, it will influence rate decisions.
• Overall, the consumer price index came in slightly below expectations.
• Inflation excluding tariffs is close to the 2% target, possibly 0.5–0.6% above.
• I don’t see signs of stress in the labor market or changes in inflation expectations that could lead to sustained inflation growth.
• The Fed’s reserves are only slightly above the required level.
• High uncertainty may support a case for a cautious policy approach.
• President Trump’s tariffs are contributing to “overall inflation growth.”