#大盘走势
Bitcoin has rebounded as expected after experiencing a second test, and the market is moving quite hesitantly. It is evident that many cryptocurrencies are experiencing a liquidity retreat, with a disordered fluctuation, and most have entered a garbage time. The crash on the 11th is still hurting the market, and both technical and emotional recovery will take time! By the 21st, Bitcoin had already rebounded to the area above 112600, hitting the upper end of the pressure range at 114000. From a smaller time frame perspective, the rebound should not be over yet, and there is potential for another push towards 114000 or even higher. However, from a volume standpoint, the volume is weak, and it is very likely to have a false breakout followed by a return to a downward trend.
I have repeatedly emphasized that this market condition presents opportunities to reduce positions when it surges. The likelihood of a direct strong move is extremely low, and everyone should pay attention to this point. The pressure level is near 114500, with the main support still looking at 107000. If this level is effectively broken below on the daily chart, the downward trend will accelerate. The previous low of 102000 might hold for a while, but its solidity is limited. The key is to observe the situation at 99000-98000 to decide on further actions.
The situation with Ethereum is slightly more complex, with no obvious trend for now. It is better to reference Bitcoin's price levels. The core support is still considered to be in the range of 3250-3300, which roughly corresponds to Bitcoin's 99000-98000 range, a safer entry point. Previously, I speculated that the duration of the U.S. government shutdown could become "the longest in history". As time passes, the uncertainty in the financial markets has significantly accumulated. A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall; any slight movement could shatter the market's fragile nerves. Currently, the focus is on defense, and one must avoid greed. If trapped here, it may take a long time to escape!
Personally, I am currently in a cash position. I have shared my position in previous posts, and I am now waiting for a significant pullback to consider entering the market. Recently, I am taking good rest and quietly waiting for opportunities.
