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稳定币生态蓬勃发展下的加密赛道投资机会分析
摘要：本文旨在从加密从业者的视角，深入分析稳定币市场扩张为整个加密生态系统带来的结构性投资机会。报告将聚焦于直接受益的代币品种、关键的生态基础设施以及新兴的RWA（真实世界资产）赛道，并为投资者梳理各领域的代表项目、核心逻辑与潜在风险，以期提供一份具有实践参考价值的投资导航图。
一、引言
近期，稳定币已成为加密市场的核心话题与重要基础设施。其市值增长、合规化进程（如美国《GENIUS法案》和香港《稳定币条例》）以及应用场景的不断拓宽，不仅巩固了其在交易、支付和结算中的地位，更为整个加密赛道带来了丰富的衍生机会。作为从业者，我们观察到资金流、信息流和创新应用正围绕稳定币密集展开。本报告将穿透现象，直接分析哪些数字货币品种有望在这一趋势中捕获价值。
二、稳定币直接关联项目的投资机会
稳定币的发展最直接利好其发行方及相关治理生态系统。
1.主流合规稳定币：
•代表品种：USDC (由Circle发行)
•核心逻辑：在强监管和透明化的趋势下，合规稳定币将成为机构资金进入加密世界的主要通道。持有USDC等稳定币本身并非为了价差投机，而是作为加密世界的“现金”工具，通过参与DeFi借贷、流动性挖矿等策略获取稳定收益（即“生息”）。
•风险提示：中心化监管风险突出，其背后储备资产的质量高度依赖传统金融系统（如曾受硅谷银行事件影响）。
2.去中心化稳定币：
•代表品种：DAI (由MakerDAO发行)
•核心逻辑：采用加密资产超额抵押模式生成，不直接依赖单一法币储备，更具抗审查性和加密原生性。随着其引入RWA作为抵押品，商业模式和收入来源更多元化。
•风险提示：其稳定性依赖于底层抵押品（如ETH）的价格稳定，极端市场条件下的连环清算风险是其系统性的挑战。
三、关键生态基础设施的代币投资机会
稳定币的发行、流转和应用需要强大的底层设施支持，这些设施的代币将捕获生态增长的价值。
1.公链与Layer 2解决方案：
•代表品种：ETH (以太坊), SOL (Solana), ARB (Arbitrum), OP (Optimism)
•核心逻辑：稳定币是公链上最重要的资产和流动性来源。绝大多数稳定币活动和DeFi协议集中于以太坊，其网络效应难以撼动。高性能公链（如Solana）和Layer 2解决方案因交易速度快、费用低廉，更适合稳定币的支付和高频交易场景，有望吸引增量迁移和发行。
•风险提示：以太坊主网Gas费高昂问题可能驱使用户流向竞争链；L2赛道竞争激烈，技术迭代快，生态粘性是成功关键。
2.DeFi协议代币：
•去中心化交易所 (DEX):
o代表品种：UNI (Uniswap)
o核心逻辑：稳定币是DEX上最主要的交易对，其交易量的增长直接带动协议手续费收入，潜在惠及治理代币持有人。
•借贷协议:
o代表品种：AAVE, COMP (Compound)
o核心逻辑：稳定币是借贷市场的核心资产，其规模扩大直接做大了借贷市场的“蛋糕”，为协议创造更多收入。
•风险提示：DeFi协议面临智能合约漏洞风险；监管政策对去中心化协议的潜在影响存在不确定性。
四、新兴赛道：RWA（真实世界资产）的代币化机会
RWA是将传统金融资产引入链上的关键桥梁，与稳定币发展相辅相成。
1.资产代币化协议：
•代表品种：ONDO (Ondo Finance), TRU (TrueFi)
•核心逻辑：新规要求稳定币储备资产需为现金或短期国债，催生了巨大的链上美债代币化需求。ONDO等项目提供将美债代币化的产品，为稳定币发行方和普通用户提供了合规的生息资产。TrueFi等则探索了私人信贷等领域的资产代币化。
•风险提示：该赛道监管合规门槛极高，传统金融市场的波动会直接传导至加密世界。
五、其他潜在机会
•支付与汇款解决方案：利用稳定币进行低成本、快速的跨境支付已成为现实需求（如一些非洲国家的商户已使用USDT进行交易）。可关注在该领域有落地应用和独特优势的项目代币。
•预言机服务：
o代表品种：LINK (Chainlink)
o核心逻辑：稳定币的跨链定价、赎回以及RWA资产的定价，都极度依赖可靠的去中心化预言机提供准确的外部数据。
o风险提示：预言机数据准确性是生命线，竞争项目较多。
六、风险总结与投资建议
投资决策必须建立在对风险的充分认知之上：
1.监管政策风险：全球范围内对稳定币和加密资产的监管框架仍在演变中，是最大的不确定性来源。
2.智能合约风险：投资任何DeFi协议代币都需直面其底层智能合约可能存在的漏洞风险。
3.脱锚与系统性风险：稳定币并非绝对安全，在极端市场条件下可能发生脱锚，相关生态项目会受到连带冲击。
4.市场波动风险：加密市场本身的高波动性意味着所有代币资产（包括ETH、SOL等）都可能出现大幅价格回撤。
投资建议：
•稳健型策略：配置主流合规稳定币（USDC）并通过合规渠道进行生息，同时长期持有以太坊（ETH）等核心基础设施资产。
•进取型策略：深入研究并适度配置DeFi蓝筹代币（如UNI, AAVE）、RWA赛道龙头（如ONDO）以及高性能公链（如SOL）。
•核心原则：持续学习（Keep Learning），深度研究（DYOR - Do Your Own Research）。始终关注项目的基本面、团队能力和技术实现，而非单纯追逐市场热点。
七、结论
稳定币的发展正在从根本上重塑加密市场的格局，其带来的投资机会是多层次和结构性的。从直接的稳定币生息，到支撑其运行的公链与Layer 2，再到赋能其应用的DeFi和RWA协议，价值捕获点遍布整个产业链。对于投资者而言，关键在于识别出那些具有强大基本面、能够从这一不可逆转趋势中持续受益的具体数字资产品种，并构建与之风险偏好相匹配的投资组合。
一、引言
近期，稳定币已成为加密市场的核心话题与重要基础设施。其市值增长、合规化进程（如美国《GENIUS法案》和香港《稳定币条例》）以及应用场景的不断拓宽，不仅巩固了其在交易、支付和结算中的地位，更为整个加密赛道带来了丰富的衍生机会。作为从业者，我们观察到资金流、信息流和创新应用正围绕稳定币密集展开。本报告将穿透现象，直接分析哪些数字货币品种有望在这一趋势中捕获价值。
二、稳定币直接关联项目的投资机会
稳定币的发展最直接利好其发行方及相关治理生态系统。
1.主流合规稳定币：
•代表品种：USDC (由Circle发行)
•核心逻辑：在强监管和透明化的趋势下，合规稳定币将成为机构资金进入加密世界的主要通道。持有USDC等稳定币本身并非为了价差投机，而是作为加密世界的“现金”工具，通过参与DeFi借贷、流动性挖矿等策略获取稳定收益（即“生息”）。
•风险提示：中心化监管风险突出，其背后储备资产的质量高度依赖传统金融系统（如曾受硅谷银行事件影响）。
2.去中心化稳定币：
•代表品种：DAI (由MakerDAO发行)
•核心逻辑：采用加密资产超额抵押模式生成，不直接依赖单一法币储备，更具抗审查性和加密原生性。随着其引入RWA作为抵押品，商业模式和收入来源更多元化。
•风险提示：其稳定性依赖于底层抵押品（如ETH）的价格稳定，极端市场条件下的连环清算风险是其系统性的挑战。
三、关键生态基础设施的代币投资机会
稳定币的发行、流转和应用需要强大的底层设施支持，这些设施的代币将捕获生态增长的价值。
1.公链与Layer 2解决方案：
•代表品种：ETH (以太坊), SOL (Solana), ARB (Arbitrum), OP (Optimism)
•核心逻辑：稳定币是公链上最重要的资产和流动性来源。绝大多数稳定币活动和DeFi协议集中于以太坊，其网络效应难以撼动。高性能公链（如Solana）和Layer 2解决方案因交易速度快、费用低廉，更适合稳定币的支付和高频交易场景，有望吸引增量迁移和发行。
•风险提示：以太坊主网Gas费高昂问题可能驱使用户流向竞争链；L2赛道竞争激烈，技术迭代快，生态粘性是成功关键。
2.DeFi协议代币：
•去中心化交易所 (DEX):
o代表品种：UNI (Uniswap)
o核心逻辑：稳定币是DEX上最主要的交易对，其交易量的增长直接带动协议手续费收入，潜在惠及治理代币持有人。
•借贷协议:
o代表品种：AAVE, COMP (Compound)
o核心逻辑：稳定币是借贷市场的核心资产，其规模扩大直接做大了借贷市场的“蛋糕”，为协议创造更多收入。
•风险提示：DeFi协议面临智能合约漏洞风险；监管政策对去中心化协议的潜在影响存在不确定性。
四、新兴赛道：RWA（真实世界资产）的代币化机会
RWA是将传统金融资产引入链上的关键桥梁，与稳定币发展相辅相成。
1.资产代币化协议：
•代表品种：ONDO (Ondo Finance), TRU (TrueFi)
•核心逻辑：新规要求稳定币储备资产需为现金或短期国债，催生了巨大的链上美债代币化需求。ONDO等项目提供将美债代币化的产品，为稳定币发行方和普通用户提供了合规的生息资产。TrueFi等则探索了私人信贷等领域的资产代币化。
•风险提示：该赛道监管合规门槛极高，传统金融市场的波动会直接传导至加密世界。
五、其他潜在机会
•支付与汇款解决方案：利用稳定币进行低成本、快速的跨境支付已成为现实需求（如一些非洲国家的商户已使用USDT进行交易）。可关注在该领域有落地应用和独特优势的项目代币。
•预言机服务：
o代表品种：LINK (Chainlink)
o核心逻辑：稳定币的跨链定价、赎回以及RWA资产的定价，都极度依赖可靠的去中心化预言机提供准确的外部数据。
o风险提示：预言机数据准确性是生命线，竞争项目较多。
六、风险总结与投资建议
投资决策必须建立在对风险的充分认知之上：
1.监管政策风险：全球范围内对稳定币和加密资产的监管框架仍在演变中，是最大的不确定性来源。
2.智能合约风险：投资任何DeFi协议代币都需直面其底层智能合约可能存在的漏洞风险。
3.脱锚与系统性风险：稳定币并非绝对安全，在极端市场条件下可能发生脱锚，相关生态项目会受到连带冲击。
4.市场波动风险：加密市场本身的高波动性意味着所有代币资产（包括ETH、SOL等）都可能出现大幅价格回撤。
投资建议：
•稳健型策略：配置主流合规稳定币（USDC）并通过合规渠道进行生息，同时长期持有以太坊（ETH）等核心基础设施资产。
•进取型策略：深入研究并适度配置DeFi蓝筹代币（如UNI, AAVE）、RWA赛道龙头（如ONDO）以及高性能公链（如SOL）。
•核心原则：持续学习（Keep Learning），深度研究（DYOR - Do Your Own Research）。始终关注项目的基本面、团队能力和技术实现，而非单纯追逐市场热点。
七、结论
稳定币的发展正在从根本上重塑加密市场的格局，其带来的投资机会是多层次和结构性的。从直接的稳定币生息，到支撑其运行的公链与Layer 2，再到赋能其应用的DeFi和RWA协议，价值捕获点遍布整个产业链。对于投资者而言，关键在于识别出那些具有强大基本面、能够从这一不可逆转趋势中持续受益的具体数字资产品种，并构建与之风险偏好相匹配的投资组合。
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AI, Depin, RWA tracks, looking for 100x coins
#Ai赛道 #RWA赛道 #depins
Let’s talk about the big market first. Bitcoin has ended its unilateral rise since it continued to reach new highs of 73,777, and has undergone a correction of more than 13,000 dollars. The magnitude is still quite large. I know that many friends are quite panicked. ! Don’t panic. At present, this is just a normal retracement of an excessive rise. There are no pessimistic expectations about whether the market will fail or how deep the market will fall. The market made a second exploration on the 20th. The action has not broken the previous low, and the signs of stopping the decline are relatively obvious. It is expected that it will continue to hit new highs after the shock. It is estimated that the two positions it may reach are the 75620 and 80120 lines. Even from a very cautious point of view, as long as Bitcoin holds the dividing line of 61,000, we can all be optimistic about the upside. At this stage, there is no need to scare yourself, just hold on to the chips in your hand. In fact, looking at most of the altcoins, there are buy signals indicating the end of the adjustment. I personally judge that the performance of the altcoins in the next week will be relatively good, and the profit-making effect will be better.
Let’s talk about the big market first. Bitcoin has ended its unilateral rise since it continued to reach new highs of 73,777, and has undergone a correction of more than 13,000 dollars. The magnitude is still quite large. I know that many friends are quite panicked. ! Don’t panic. At present, this is just a normal retracement of an excessive rise. There are no pessimistic expectations about whether the market will fail or how deep the market will fall. The market made a second exploration on the 20th. The action has not broken the previous low, and the signs of stopping the decline are relatively obvious. It is expected that it will continue to hit new highs after the shock. It is estimated that the two positions it may reach are the 75620 and 80120 lines. Even from a very cautious point of view, as long as Bitcoin holds the dividing line of 61,000, we can all be optimistic about the upside. At this stage, there is no need to scare yourself, just hold on to the chips in your hand. In fact, looking at most of the altcoins, there are buy signals indicating the end of the adjustment. I personally judge that the performance of the altcoins in the next week will be relatively good, and the profit-making effect will be better.
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$19.1 billion massacre! Trump's words shattered the cryptocurrency bull market, the largest liquidation day in history has arrived
Trump spoke late at night, tearing apart the facade of calm, stating that he would continue the trade war with China. As soon as these words were spoken, the global financial markets suffered a heavy blow, Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeted, and there were even zero-value coins like IOTX appearing. As long as the contracts were long positions, even with a leverage of only 1.5 times, it resulted in total annihilation, with bulls slaughtered completely, and the cryptocurrency space was a river of blood! Having been too comfortable for too long, the new and old retail investors who had either forgotten or never experienced the events of March 12 and May 19 were given a solid lesson by the market!
According to market data, FTX plummeted: $1.6 billion in liquidations, March 12: $2 billion in liquidations, May 19: $5 billion in liquidations, today: $19.16 billion in liquidations. On October 11, this is the largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency history, with a scale nearly 20 times that of the crash in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic! The base has grown larger, and the injured retail investors are increasing! One of the most mentioned phrases in our previous articles is that regardless of whether this rebound can create new highs, we must pay attention to the fact that we are already at the tail end of a bull market. The rise is an opportunity to sell, not a time for long-term holding. We know the end of the bull market is nearing; we just didn't expect the bear to reveal its fangs in such a brutal manner!
According to market data, FTX plummeted: $1.6 billion in liquidations, March 12: $2 billion in liquidations, May 19: $5 billion in liquidations, today: $19.16 billion in liquidations. On October 11, this is the largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency history, with a scale nearly 20 times that of the crash in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic! The base has grown larger, and the injured retail investors are increasing! One of the most mentioned phrases in our previous articles is that regardless of whether this rebound can create new highs, we must pay attention to the fact that we are already at the tail end of a bull market. The rise is an opportunity to sell, not a time for long-term holding. We know the end of the bull market is nearing; we just didn't expect the bear to reveal its fangs in such a brutal manner!
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#大牛市要来了
Tonight, 99% of people will cry without tears again, once again 312 and 519, the spot goods are dead, at worst let me return to zero, dog stock is awesome, I'm so confused about the losses, we need to comfort each other
$SOL
Tonight, 99% of people will cry without tears again, once again 312 and 519, the spot goods are dead, at worst let me return to zero, dog stock is awesome, I'm so confused about the losses, we need to comfort each other
$SOL
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#操作思路
Currently, this position has little inventory; you can increase your position a bit. It's fine if you copied your account too early; it's just a few points. Your opportunity is here! The main targets are still those few applications for ETFs, while others can consider apt, pepe, etc.
$APT
Currently, this position has little inventory; you can increase your position a bit. It's fine if you copied your account too early; it's just a few points. Your opportunity is here! The main targets are still those few applications for ETFs, while others can consider apt, pepe, etc.
$APT
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#大盘走势
On the first day back from the holiday, the market fluctuates wildly, with centralized exchanges (cex) weak and decentralized exchanges (dex) thriving to a shocking extent. The market feels like a world of ice and fire, and during times like this, the chaos always reminds me of the ancient times of major cryptocurrency casinos and the last glory brought by Huobi's seaweed from the tails of the previous two bull markets. The situation is so similar; the altcoin season hasn't not arrived, but it is happening on another battlefield. The struggles of the old investors and the celebrations of the new investors intertwine, making one sigh! After the feast, there is bound to be a mess. If you have the opportunity and capability, you should participate, but remember not to get overly excited! After all, there isn't much time left in the bull market...
Returning to the charts, Bitcoin has rebounded after a pullback, but the overall correction is not yet in place. The rebound target is the small peak between 125100 and 126000, and if it continues to pull back, the small support is at 120000, while the strong support is better at 117900. Ethereum is performing weaker than expected and will not have an independent market for now, with support around 4160. Currently, the secondary market is experiencing significant losses, and with the uncertainty brought by the U.S. government shutdown, it is quite difficult to see any significant improvement for the time being. The market generally expects that the government will resume work after the 15th, and at that time, there should be a collective opportunity for ETF cryptocurrencies!
Personally, I bought in the middle with form, making a profit of about 24%, and exited at noon. I currently still hold half of my position, and I will consider re-entering after the pullback.
$SOL $LTC
On the first day back from the holiday, the market fluctuates wildly, with centralized exchanges (cex) weak and decentralized exchanges (dex) thriving to a shocking extent. The market feels like a world of ice and fire, and during times like this, the chaos always reminds me of the ancient times of major cryptocurrency casinos and the last glory brought by Huobi's seaweed from the tails of the previous two bull markets. The situation is so similar; the altcoin season hasn't not arrived, but it is happening on another battlefield. The struggles of the old investors and the celebrations of the new investors intertwine, making one sigh! After the feast, there is bound to be a mess. If you have the opportunity and capability, you should participate, but remember not to get overly excited! After all, there isn't much time left in the bull market...
Returning to the charts, Bitcoin has rebounded after a pullback, but the overall correction is not yet in place. The rebound target is the small peak between 125100 and 126000, and if it continues to pull back, the small support is at 120000, while the strong support is better at 117900. Ethereum is performing weaker than expected and will not have an independent market for now, with support around 4160. Currently, the secondary market is experiencing significant losses, and with the uncertainty brought by the U.S. government shutdown, it is quite difficult to see any significant improvement for the time being. The market generally expects that the government will resume work after the 15th, and at that time, there should be a collective opportunity for ETF cryptocurrencies!
Personally, I bought in the middle with form, making a profit of about 24%, and exited at noon. I currently still hold half of my position, and I will consider re-entering after the pullback.
$SOL $LTC
B
LTCUSDT
Perp
Closed
PNL
-24.13USDT
See original
#BNBChainMeme热潮
I stopped playing with the dog farm. This dog farm has too much volatility, it keeps harvesting back and forth, it's really ruthless, I made over 20 points and left.
$FORM
I stopped playing with the dog farm. This dog farm has too much volatility, it keeps harvesting back and forth, it's really ruthless, I made over 20 points and left.
$FORM
B
FORMUSDT
Perp
Closed
PNL
+1,731.35USDT
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#BNBChainMeme热潮
BSC is very hot, TST currently has a good pattern, small rounded bottom, you might want to consider it
$TST
BSC is very hot, TST currently has a good pattern, small rounded bottom, you might want to consider it
$TST
See original
#BNBChainMeme热潮
Binance life is really crazy, with a market value of 400 million dollars, it really overturns understanding, it's an unresolvable thing...
Although we can't buy things beyond our understanding, we still got a share of the Form's benefits, Binance's post was publicly published, everyone got on board, keep pushing me forward 😎, friends who haven't gotten on board should not chase randomly
$FORM $币安人生
Binance life is really crazy, with a market value of 400 million dollars, it really overturns understanding, it's an unresolvable thing...
Although we can't buy things beyond our understanding, we still got a share of the Form's benefits, Binance's post was publicly published, everyone got on board, keep pushing me forward 😎, friends who haven't gotten on board should not chase randomly
$FORM $币安人生
#BNB创新高
BNB has reached a new high, the BSC ecosystem has exploded, and Form currently has a highly profitable launch platform, so it’s worth taking a gamble on the significant rebound potential
$FORM
BNB has reached a new high, the BSC ecosystem has exploded, and Form currently has a highly profitable launch platform, so it’s worth taking a gamble on the significant rebound potential
$FORM
See original
#BNB创新高
BNB has reached a new high, the BSC ecosystem has exploded, and Form currently has a highly profitable launch platform, so it’s worth taking a gamble on the significant rebound potential
$FORM
BNB has reached a new high, the BSC ecosystem has exploded, and Form currently has a highly profitable launch platform, so it’s worth taking a gamble on the significant rebound potential
$FORM
B
FORMUSDT
Perp
Closed
PNL
+1,731.35USDT
See original
#暴涨
The form has taken off, the post on Binance Square reminded us in time, a 20% bullish candlestick has arrived😎
$FORM
The form has taken off, the post on Binance Square reminded us in time, a 20% bullish candlestick has arrived😎
$FORM
#BTC再创新高 #BNB创新高
The popularity of Binance Chain tokens is relatively good, so we can consider opportunities from it. I see signs of funds coming in at the bottom.
$FORM
The popularity of Binance Chain tokens is relatively good, so we can consider opportunities from it. I see signs of funds coming in at the bottom.
$FORM
See original
#BNB创新高
The big coin has impacted the previous high near 123894, and is currently consolidating at a high level. The next target is the previously mentioned new high range of 125500-12660. There is still considerable pressure near the previous high, and coupled with the divergence in the big coin indicators, a correction is very normal. The expected correction won't be too deep, with support around 118300. Ethereum currently does not have the potential to outperform the big coin, and a synchronous decline is expected, with support around 4320. The impact of the government shutdown is beginning to show, with economic data not being released and ETF approvals being delayed. Market enthusiasm has cooled down somewhat, and in the short term, ETF-related cryptocurrencies will be more affected, but the shutdown is temporary and won't last long. Once the government returns to normal operations, the backlog will accelerate the approval process. From this perspective, a correction is actually a good opportunity to position in such cryptocurrencies like SOL, DOGE, LTC, ADA, SUI, PEPE, etc. Once they reach support levels, entry is advisable! Historically, after a new high for the big coin, other cryptocurrencies tend to follow suit with a rebound. This pattern rarely changes, and we look forward to the timing of the big coin's new high, waiting for an opportunity to unload the chips in hand!
$BNB $BTC
The big coin has impacted the previous high near 123894, and is currently consolidating at a high level. The next target is the previously mentioned new high range of 125500-12660. There is still considerable pressure near the previous high, and coupled with the divergence in the big coin indicators, a correction is very normal. The expected correction won't be too deep, with support around 118300. Ethereum currently does not have the potential to outperform the big coin, and a synchronous decline is expected, with support around 4320. The impact of the government shutdown is beginning to show, with economic data not being released and ETF approvals being delayed. Market enthusiasm has cooled down somewhat, and in the short term, ETF-related cryptocurrencies will be more affected, but the shutdown is temporary and won't last long. Once the government returns to normal operations, the backlog will accelerate the approval process. From this perspective, a correction is actually a good opportunity to position in such cryptocurrencies like SOL, DOGE, LTC, ADA, SUI, PEPE, etc. Once they reach support levels, entry is advisable! Historically, after a new high for the big coin, other cryptocurrencies tend to follow suit with a rebound. This pattern rarely changes, and we look forward to the timing of the big coin's new high, waiting for an opportunity to unload the chips in hand!
$BNB $BTC
See original
#十月加密行情
Bitcoin continues to surge, consistent with previous expectations, breaking through resistance zones consecutively, reaching 120000, and the next resistance level is very close at around 120900. If this level is also broken, the next resistance will be a new high in the range of 125500-126600! Ethereum is also very close to the resistance level of 4532, and there is some resonance at this pressure point with Bitcoin. Therefore, the market is likely to take a slight breather here, with a small pullback before continuing to rise. Bitcoin's support level is around 117200, and Ethereum's support level is around 4250. Altcoins with large market caps are starting to pick up, making the overall market much more lively than before, which is quite healthy! Spot traders can be more patient, ignore short-term fluctuations, take some time, and wait to decide after Bitcoin hits a new high. The recent market has maintained a good profit effect, so make sure to cherish it well!
$SOL $ETH
Bitcoin continues to surge, consistent with previous expectations, breaking through resistance zones consecutively, reaching 120000, and the next resistance level is very close at around 120900. If this level is also broken, the next resistance will be a new high in the range of 125500-126600! Ethereum is also very close to the resistance level of 4532, and there is some resonance at this pressure point with Bitcoin. Therefore, the market is likely to take a slight breather here, with a small pullback before continuing to rise. Bitcoin's support level is around 117200, and Ethereum's support level is around 4250. Altcoins with large market caps are starting to pick up, making the overall market much more lively than before, which is quite healthy! Spot traders can be more patient, ignore short-term fluctuations, take some time, and wait to decide after Bitcoin hits a new high. The recent market has maintained a good profit effect, so make sure to cherish it well!
$SOL $ETH
#操作思路
Currently, I am following up. Overall, the operation feels a bit awkward, but it doesn't seem like I've missed out on too much. I will share specific thoughts and ideas later.
$SOL
Currently, I am following up. Overall, the operation feels a bit awkward, but it doesn't seem like I've missed out on too much. I will share specific thoughts and ideas later.
$SOL
See original
#操作思路
Currently, I am following up. Overall, the operation feels a bit awkward, but it doesn't seem like I've missed out on too much. I will share specific thoughts and ideas later.
$SOL
Currently, I am following up. Overall, the operation feels a bit awkward, but it doesn't seem like I've missed out on too much. I will share specific thoughts and ideas later.
$SOL
See original
Market Trend!? Market Reversal?!
Today is our National Day, and it is also the day of the U.S. government shutdown. The U.S. stock market began to decline due to news influence, but unexpectedly, Bitcoin suddenly rose, creating a bullish candle, with Ethereum following, leading to a broad rise in the entire cryptocurrency market. Let's review our previous views; there are two points that were mentioned more often. First, this pullback allows for a breach of 110000, but it cannot remain below that level for a long time without recovering. The second point is that there is not much downward space left, so there is no need to panic.
Back to the trend, Bitcoin broke through 110000 on September 25, hitting a low of 108631. The long bearish candle had almost no lower shadow, and on the second and third days, small K-lines showed weakness and consolidation, typical of a downward continuation pattern, then began a slight rebound, accelerating today. Looking back now, the trend in the days after the 25th is very misleading. In the latter half of this round of market, long bearish candles with no lower shadows began to appear, important support levels were broken, and weak fluctuations below the support level increased, struggling yet suddenly pulling up, which is clearly aimed at trapping technical traders... There are only two ways to respond: one is to expand the buying range and buy in batches, and the other is to enlarge the stop loss, having a big heart! But the drawbacks of doing this are also very obvious; batch trading will reduce profits, and enlarging the stop loss will lead to significant waterfall losses when the market drops. There is no perfect solution in the world; how to choose is up to the individual.
Back to the trend, Bitcoin broke through 110000 on September 25, hitting a low of 108631. The long bearish candle had almost no lower shadow, and on the second and third days, small K-lines showed weakness and consolidation, typical of a downward continuation pattern, then began a slight rebound, accelerating today. Looking back now, the trend in the days after the 25th is very misleading. In the latter half of this round of market, long bearish candles with no lower shadows began to appear, important support levels were broken, and weak fluctuations below the support level increased, struggling yet suddenly pulling up, which is clearly aimed at trapping technical traders... There are only two ways to respond: one is to expand the buying range and buy in batches, and the other is to enlarge the stop loss, having a big heart! But the drawbacks of doing this are also very obvious; batch trading will reduce profits, and enlarging the stop loss will lead to significant waterfall losses when the market drops. There is no perfect solution in the world; how to choose is up to the individual.
See original
What impact will the U.S. government shutdown have on the economic market
What impact will the U.S. government shutdown have on the economic market
Based on the current information, the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown is extremely high, mainly due to the Democratic and Republican parties refusing to compromise on key issues such as healthcare spending. This shutdown, in addition to bringing a series of immediate effects, has potential long-term implications and the possibility of large-scale layoffs in federal agencies, making it different from past situations.
The reasons and current situation of the U.S. government shutdown
The following is a summary of the core information regarding the current crisis to help you quickly understand the context.
The special aspects of this shutdown
Based on the current information, the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown is extremely high, mainly due to the Democratic and Republican parties refusing to compromise on key issues such as healthcare spending. This shutdown, in addition to bringing a series of immediate effects, has potential long-term implications and the possibility of large-scale layoffs in federal agencies, making it different from past situations.
The reasons and current situation of the U.S. government shutdown
The following is a summary of the core information regarding the current crisis to help you quickly understand the context.
The special aspects of this shutdown
See original
#大盘走势
The large coin began to pull back after reaching the pressure level above 114000. The expectation for the upcoming time is to continue with oscillating pullbacks. The short-term support is initially seen at 110000, and the key opportunities should focus on the range of 105000-107000. The short-term support for Ethereum remains at 4070, and the key opportunities are still looking around 3600! Overall, the large coin market is about to make a directional choice, and volatility will significantly increase. The market situation has not changed much from previous predictions, and I would like to emphasize the impending government shutdown in the United States. From the current information, due to political polarization and institutional barriers, the probability of this government shutdown is still high. If the shutdown occurs, key agencies such as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Department of Commerce will suspend the release of core economic data such as non-farm employment, CPI, and retail sales. For example, the non-farm report originally scheduled for October 3 and the CPI data on October 10 may be delayed, which will directly interfere with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision-making meeting on October 28-29. The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates in September due to signs of cooling in the job market, and if there is a lack of subsequent data support, policymakers may be forced to "fly blind," leading to significant fluctuations in the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. During the government shutdown, approximately 400,000 federal employees will be forced to take unpaid leave, and delayed salary payments will directly suppress consumer spending. At the same time, businesses face operational risks due to stalled federal contract approvals and interrupted export certificate issuances, which may delay investment plans. Historical experience shows that the stock market usually experiences fluctuations in the early stage of a shutdown, but the long-term impact depends on the duration. For example, during the 16-day shutdown in 2013, the S&P 500 index fell by 3.5%, but then quickly rebounded. The shutdown coincides with the impending increase in volatility of the large coin, with technical and news aspects overlapping, indicating that if the shutdown occurs, the market may make a downward choice with a significant drop. Everyone must pay attention to risk prevention in advance!
$BTC $ETH
The large coin began to pull back after reaching the pressure level above 114000. The expectation for the upcoming time is to continue with oscillating pullbacks. The short-term support is initially seen at 110000, and the key opportunities should focus on the range of 105000-107000. The short-term support for Ethereum remains at 4070, and the key opportunities are still looking around 3600! Overall, the large coin market is about to make a directional choice, and volatility will significantly increase. The market situation has not changed much from previous predictions, and I would like to emphasize the impending government shutdown in the United States. From the current information, due to political polarization and institutional barriers, the probability of this government shutdown is still high. If the shutdown occurs, key agencies such as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Department of Commerce will suspend the release of core economic data such as non-farm employment, CPI, and retail sales. For example, the non-farm report originally scheduled for October 3 and the CPI data on October 10 may be delayed, which will directly interfere with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision-making meeting on October 28-29. The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates in September due to signs of cooling in the job market, and if there is a lack of subsequent data support, policymakers may be forced to "fly blind," leading to significant fluctuations in the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. During the government shutdown, approximately 400,000 federal employees will be forced to take unpaid leave, and delayed salary payments will directly suppress consumer spending. At the same time, businesses face operational risks due to stalled federal contract approvals and interrupted export certificate issuances, which may delay investment plans. Historical experience shows that the stock market usually experiences fluctuations in the early stage of a shutdown, but the long-term impact depends on the duration. For example, during the 16-day shutdown in 2013, the S&P 500 index fell by 3.5%, but then quickly rebounded. The shutdown coincides with the impending increase in volatility of the large coin, with technical and news aspects overlapping, indicating that if the shutdown occurs, the market may make a downward choice with a significant drop. Everyone must pay attention to risk prevention in advance!
$BTC $ETH
See original
What Impact Will the U.S. Government Shutdown Have on the Economic Market?
Based on current information, the likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown is extremely high, primarily due to the Democratic and Republican parties' unwillingness to compromise on key issues such as healthcare spending. This shutdown not only brings a series of immediate impacts but also has potential long-term effects and the possibility of large-scale layoffs in federal agencies, making it different from previous situations.
Reasons and Current Status of the U.S. Government Shutdown
Below is an overview of the core information regarding the current crisis, helping you quickly understand the background.
The Special Aspects of This Shutdown
Compared to historical shutdowns, there are several noteworthy trends in this event:
Reasons and Current Status of the U.S. Government Shutdown
Below is an overview of the core information regarding the current crisis, helping you quickly understand the background.
The Special Aspects of This Shutdown
Compared to historical shutdowns, there are several noteworthy trends in this event:
See original
Surprise! SEC has requested LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE ETF issuers to withdraw 19 b-4 applications?
News Event Overview
According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett's post on platform X, the SEC has requested the issuers of LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 applications, as the general listing standards have been approved, replacing the 19b-4 applications. The withdrawal of applications could begin as early as this week.
Core Interpretation: Process optimization rather than substantive negative impact
This news about the SEC's request to withdraw specific cryptocurrency ETF 19b-4 applications is essentially an optimization of the regulatory process, not a denial of these digital currency ETFs. It signifies that a more efficient and standardized approval era may be on the horizon.
According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett's post on platform X, the SEC has requested the issuers of LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 applications, as the general listing standards have been approved, replacing the 19b-4 applications. The withdrawal of applications could begin as early as this week.
Core Interpretation: Process optimization rather than substantive negative impact
This news about the SEC's request to withdraw specific cryptocurrency ETF 19b-4 applications is essentially an optimization of the regulatory process, not a denial of these digital currency ETFs. It signifies that a more efficient and standardized approval era may be on the horizon.
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