The CPI data for September in the United States unexpectedly cooled down, releasing key signals—inflationary pressures are clearly alleviating.
In particular, core components such as housing costs have shown a decline, further reinforcing market expectations for a shift in monetary policy. Meanwhile, the job market has also cooled somewhat, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in the pace of corporate hiring, providing more room for the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rate policies.
Against the backdrop of the current government shutdown and increasing economic downturn risks, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts. The likelihood of action in October is very high; if economic data continues to weaken, another rate cut in December will also be quite logical. It can be said that the cycle of rate cuts has basically been established.
For the market, an improvement in liquidity expectations will boost risk assets: U.S. stocks are likely to benefit from valuation recovery, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve may exhibit a "bull steepening" shape; cryptocurrencies, as highly elastic assets, are expected to attract a new wave of capital attention, with leading currencies like Bitcoin showing promising performance. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar may face short-term pressure, while non-U.S. currencies are expected to gain support.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to focus on interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as technology and consumer stocks; the cryptocurrency market should also not be overlooked, and is expected to show strength in a loose liquidity environment. This is an opportune time to position oneself, and it is advisable to actively adjust holdings to seize the market opportunities brought by policy turning points.
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