Solana ($SOL) is reported at 199.76 USD, with a 24-hour decline of 2.4%. This fluctuation is consistent with the overall pullback trend in the cryptocurrency market during the same period — Bitcoin (BTC) declined about 1.8% in 24 hours, Ethereum (ETH) fell about 2.1%, while SOL's relative resilience somewhat reflects the market's recognition of its ecological resilience.


From recent trends, SOL has gradually retreated since reaching a high of 210 USD in early August, affected by tightening liquidity in the broader market. However, it has consistently held above the key support level of 190 USD without panic selling. On-chain data shows that in the last 7 days, large transfers of SOL (single transactions over 100,000 USD) had a buying ratio of 53%, indicating a clear willingness to support the funds. Key technical aspects and market sentiment.

  • Resistance Level Analysis：
    The first short-term resistance level is at $205, which is not only the peak tested multiple times in early August but also the intersection area of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. If it can break through with volume, it is expected to open up upward space; the medium-term resistance to watch is $246 (corresponding to this year's June peak), where a large number of trapped positions are gathered, requiring ecological benefits or market resonance to effectively overcome; the long-term resistance looks towards $295 (April 2022 peak), which needs sustained improvement in fundamentals as support.

  • Support Level Logic：
    $190 is not only the pivot point in the recent month-long oscillation but also where the 20-day moving average is located, forming a dual protection of 'moving average support + dense chip area' from a technical perspective; if it unexpectedly falls below, the next strong support is at $185 (corresponding to this year's July retracement low, which saw three rebounds), while the more critical support level is at $165 (the upper edge of the Q2 2023 oscillation platform, with relatively low historical selling pressure).

  • Technical Indicator Signals：
    The daily RSI indicator currently reports 48, in a neutral range, with no overbought or oversold signals, indicating that short-term oscillation will continue; the MACD indicator's histogram is contracting near the zero axis, with the fast and slow lines about to form a golden cross, suggesting that potential rebound momentum is accumulating.

Market Outlook: Short-term oscillation, long-term ecological breakout

  • Short-term (1-4 weeks)：
    As long as SOL remains above $190, oscillating upward is still a high probability event. Core catalytic factors include: whether the locked value (TVL) of Solana's on-chain DeFi protocols (such as Marinade, Jupiter) can break through $1 billion (currently about $870 million), and whether the NFT market trading volume can recover (the trading volume of SOL-based NFTs has decreased by 12% compared to the previous week; if it stabilizes, it will boost market confidence). If it breaks through $205 and stabilizes, the target can look towards the $210-220 range.

  • Medium-term (1-3 months)：
    It is essential to pay close attention to the progress of the Solana 4.0 upgrade (scheduled for September, featuring 'lower Gas fees + higher throughput'). If network performance significantly improves after implementation, it is expected to attract more developers and users, pushing valuations closer to $246. Additionally, marginal changes in the U.S. SEC's regulatory policies on cryptocurrencies (such as ETF approval dynamics) will also affect market sentiment.

  • Long-term (6-12 months)：
    Solana's core competitiveness still lies in its differentiated positioning of 'high-performance public chain + low-cost transactions'. Currently, its ecosystem has gathered over 1000 active projects covering DeFi, NFT, GameFi, etc. If it can continue to break through in user scale (currently about 300,000 daily active addresses) and transaction frequency, it is expected to narrow the gap with Ethereum Layer2, with long-term valuations potentially targeting $300.

Practical Strategy: Flexibly layout according to risk preference

  • Long-term Holders (over 1 year)：
    It is recommended to adopt a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy to diversify risks:

    • Phase 1: In the $180-200 range, buy in batches every week with a fixed amount (e.g., invest $500-1000 weekly), corresponding to the valuation pivot of nearly 6 months, with a high margin of safety;

    • Phase 2: If it falls back to $165, consider moderately increasing the position (e.g., increase a single investment to 1.5 times the usual), as this position has a historical rebound probability exceeding 70%, with outstanding cost-effectiveness;

    • Positioning Logic: Ignore short-term fluctuations, focus on long-term indicators such as ecological TVL, number of developers, and institutional cooperation. If the above data continues to deteriorate, then consider adjusting the strategy.

  • Short-term Traders (1-4 weeks)：
    Opportunities in the oscillation range can be grasped:

    • Entry Point: In the $190-195 range (corresponding to support level + stabilization signal), set the stop loss below $185 (if it breaks the strong support level, it indicates a trend reversal);

    • Target Level: First target $205-210 (resistance level + short-term profit space); if it breaks through with volume, it can be seen up to $220-230;

    • Risk Warning: Be wary of sudden negative news from the market (e.g., unexpected interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve) or negative news from project parties (e.g., cybersecurity incidents), and it is recommended that positions do not exceed 20% of total funds.

Summary

Solana is currently at a critical stage of 'short-term oscillation accumulation and long-term ecological breakout'. The defense of the $190 support level is an important signal of market confidence. For investors, short-term opportunities can be seized in the range of oscillation, while long-term attention should be focused on ecological progress and macroeconomic changes. Regardless of the strategy taken, effective risk control and avoiding chasing highs and selling lows remain the core principles of investing in the cryptocurrency market.



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