Recently, XRP holders are probably feeling a lump in their throats - after multiple failures to break through key resistance levels, this once "altcoin star" is showing increasingly obvious signs of fatigue. As of now, the XRP price is hovering around $2.65, with selling pressure quietly rising, and the previously hot upward momentum is visibly fading. Many investors are anxiously asking in the community: Will this adjustment directly drop to $2? The bearish signals that have been ignored have actually already provided the answer!

1. Deadly resistance level under pressure: The downward trend line has become a "line of life and death"

Looking back at the October market, XRP's rebound after a sharp decline seems particularly 'weak'. At that time, the price attempted to surge towards the $2.75-$2.80 range, which was a crucial battle to reverse the short-term downturn. However, it ultimately ended with 'touching and retreating'—this resistance level perfectly coincided with the descending resistance line formed since August. What's even more concerning is that this 'lowering of lows' trend is seen as a typical 'bearish dominant pattern' in technical analysis.

Veteran traders have noted that since the August high, XRP has encountered resistance and retreated three times at similar positions, with each rebound peak lower than the previous one. Once this 'stair-step decline' pattern forms, it often indicates that a larger correction is brewing. Especially with trading volume continuously shrinking and the willingness of new funds to enter being low, rebounds without buying support are like water without a source, easily suppressed by bears.

2. The moving average system signals 'warning': Multiple key moving averages become a pressure wall.

If we say the price trend is the market's 'expression', then moving averages are the 'thermometers' for judging trends. Currently, XRP is in an awkward position: it cannot stabilize above the 200-day moving average and has yet to break below the 50-day moving average—this 'stagnant state' hides potential risks.

More critically, the rejection signal from the 100-day moving average (orange line) has become very clear. During the previous rebound, XRP briefly touched the 100-day moving average but was quickly pushed back, indicating a severe lack of market capital inflow. Technically, when assets consistently fail to break through the mid-term moving average, it often indicates that the structural downtrend is still continuing.

Although the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows 53, which is in the 'neutral zone', combined with the price trend, it resembles 'the calm before the storm'. Volume data has already issued a warning: in the past three trading days, the trading volume during declines has significantly increased, while the volume during rebounds has remained persistently low. This 'volume-price divergence' is a typical characteristic of accumulated selling pressure.

3. The $2 level serves as the 'last line of defense': What are the consequences if it breaks?

Now all eyes are on the crucial support level of $2.55. Analysts generally believe that if XRP cannot hold above $2.55 in the near term, the next target will directly point to the psychological level of $2.00. This price level is not only an important support level technically but also a 'watershed' for market sentiment—once breached, it could trigger panic selling by retail investors, accelerating the decline.

However, there are a few optimistic voices who believe that 'bottom-fishing funds' may enter around the $2 mark, as historically, XRP has received strong support at whole number levels multiple times. The prerequisite is that the bulls must quickly organize an effective counterattack in the $2.55-$2.60 range; otherwise, once the defense line is breached, $2 may only be a 'midway station', and the lower levels could even test the previous low around $1.8.

Trading suggestions (for reference only):
1. For holders: closely monitor the $2.55 support level. If it breaks down with volume and cannot quickly recover, consider reducing positions to avoid risk;
2. For onlookers: do not rush to bottom-fish. Wait for clear signs of stabilization at the key support level (such as a volume spike with a bullish candle, MACD golden cross, etc.);
3. For short-term traders: you may consider lightly shorting in the $2.70-$2.75 range, with a stop-loss set above $2.85.

Lastly, I want to remind everyone that the cryptocurrency market is greatly influenced by news. If unexpected news emerges, such as a loosening of SEC regulations or favorable Ripple collaborations, the current bearish pattern could be instantly shattered. Do you think XRP can hold above $2? Feel free to leave your opinions in the comments section and let's track this critical market movement together!
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