Due to a weak job market, the Federal Reserve is prepared to lower interest rates again in October 2025, but there are clear divisions internally.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that there is a danger in delaying action, and his remarks are seen as reinforcing expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in October. Futures market traders have also anticipated this and believe there will be another rate cut in December. However, a significant portion of the Federal Reserve is calling for caution, noting that price levels have been above target for several years and still face upward pressure. Among the 19 Federal Reserve officials, 8 predict there will be no further rate cuts next year due to persistently high inflation and seemingly strong growth, and the latest trade frictions have once again highlighted the ongoing threat of tariffs.

Internally at the Federal Reserve, the board led by Powell is generally leaning dovish, while the voting regional Federal Reserve presidents tend to be more hawkish. Governors Waller and Bowman are leading the push for rate cuts, both viewing employment as a primary concern, while newly appointed Governor Mulan advocates for rapid consecutive cuts of 50 basis points, but remains in the minority for now. Additionally, the policy path for 2026 faces multiple variables, as Powell's chairmanship will end in May next year, and the Cleveland Fed President Hamak and the Dallas Fed President Logan, who will rotate into voting seats next year, are both cautious hawks regarding further rate cuts. #美联储降息预期