Luke Gromen's thesis is bold: China's rare earth export curbs aren't just supply chain sabotage—they're a direct strike at the USD's military-backed hegemony. By choking off 90%+ of global rare earths (critical for F-35 jets, missiles, EVs, and chips), Beijing exposes the Petrodollar's Achilles' heel. No minerals = no military dominance = fiat facade crumbles. Trump's 100% tariff retaliation? A bluff with no teeth.
Fact-Check: Mostly Spot-On
| Claim | Verdict | Details |
|-------|---------|---------|
| China >90% rare earths/magnets | ✅ True | USGS 2024: China 70% mining, 92% processing, 99% heavy rare earths. Export bans hit samarium, gadolinium, etc., effective Dec 2024. |
| Bans target US MIC | ✅ Confirmed | Beijing's Dec 23 restrictions block tech exports to US firms like Raytheon. No direct "military ban," but effectively starves defense supply. |
| Trump 100% tariffs | ✅ Announced | Truth Social, Dec 24: "If China doesn't drop rare earth bans, 100% on their exports." Escalates trade war. |
| USD worst year since '73 | ✅ Accurate | DXY -10.5% YTD (105.8 today). Lost 40% PPP since 2000 (Fed data). |
| Saddam/Gaddafi invasions | 🔶 Nuanced | Iraq: Petrodollar defiance cited by analysts. Libya: Gold dinar plan debated, but NATO docs emphasize humanitarian pretext. Gromen simplifies valid point. |
## 🌍 Geopolitical Chess: Why This Accelerates De-Dollarization
China's move syncs with BRICS expansion (now 10 members, $32T GDP) and mBridge CBDC trials bypassing SWIFT. Rare earths = "new oil." US stockpiles? ~1 year for defense (DOE est.). Diversification? Australia/Lynas: 12% capacity, years away.
Result: Weaponized interdependence. West can't sanction without self-harm. Gromen nails it—USD relied on "rules-based order" enforced by carriers, not consensus.
## 💎 Hard Money Rally: BTC/Gold to the Moon?
Gromen’s right: Inflation hedge narrative dominates. Fiat debasement (M2 +$5T since 2020) fuels flight to scarcity. Stablecoins? USD-pegged illusions—US Treasury's "Genius Act" pushes them, but Tether's $120B circulation already erodes sovereignty.
| Asset | YTD Performance | Why It Wins | Catalysts Ahead |
|-------|-----------------|-------------|----------------|
| USD (DXY) | -10.5% | Debasement + dedoll | BRICS oil trades in yuan (Saudi pilots), Japan/Korea dumping Treasuries |
| Bitcoin | +140% (ATH $108K) | Digital gold, 21M cap | ETF inflows $40B, Trump reserves, halving scarcity |
| Gold | +35% (ATH $2,670/oz) | Eternal hedge | CB buying 1,000t/Y (China +290t), negative real yields |
| Rare Earth Stocks | MP Materials +80% | Supply shock | Lynas +120%, US tariffs boost domestics |
Forecast: BTC $150K by Q2 '25 (Matrixport). Gold $3K. USD tests 95. If China dumps $800B Treasuries? Game over.
## My Take: Gromen's 80% Right—But Timeline Matters
Dollar collapse isn't overnight; it's a slow bleed (like 1971 Nixon shock). Rare earths tip the scale, forcing "hard money reset." BTC isn't just saving the economy—it's the economy. Asia Express mag nails it: China's mocking US crypto bans while hoarding BTC.
What’s your play? HODL BTC? Rare earth miners? Reply for portfolio recs. 🧠📈
Sources: Reuters, USGS, Fed, Bloomberg (Dec 27, 2024 updates)
#USBitcoinReservesSurge #StrategyBTCPurchase #china #USACryptoTrends $ZBT
