Key points:
• The U.S. government shutdown has halted the flow of essential economic data, increasing uncertainty in global policymaking.
• If this “data blackout” continues for too long, both market volatility and financial decisions will be affected.
• According to former officials from the Bank of England and the Eurasia Group, the test of confidence in the U.S. governance model has now begun.
As the shutdown drags on, economists are warning that the lack of critical economic data is pushing global markets into an “information void.”
Agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are unable to publish their regular data — this means that the world is not seeing the real picture of 25% of the global economy.
Adam Posen (President, Peterson Institute for International Economics) said:
“This is not just a temporary issue but a crisis of credibility. The shutdown and BLS issues have raised questions about the reliability of the U.S. government and its trustworthy status — affecting foreign exchange reserves, monetary policies, and market volatility.”
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Increasing uncertainty for policymakers 📉
Although alternative data sources are available, they do not serve as a substitute for official statistics.
According to Robert Cant (Head of Global Macro, Eurasia Group), policymakers are now relying on micro data, private analytical reports, and information obtained from various sources — but interpreting such scattered information can prove dangerous.
They said:
“Data is available, but uncertainty increases over time, and the likelihood of error also rises.”
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Global impacts 🌐
The U.S. economy holds a central position in both trade and finance. If delays in data related to employment, inflation, and growth continue, the effects will reach the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan, and the central banks of emerging economies.
All these institutions rely on U.S. data for their economic forecasts and financial models.
💰 Relevant markets: