Famous Wall Street analyst and Bitmine chairman Tom Lee stated in an interview on 10/7 that the global market is heading towards a new economic cycle driven by 'AI, productivity revolution, and cryptocurrency popularization.' He believes that the demographic structure and technological advantages of the United States will support this long-term bull market, and investments in Bitcoin (BTC) and AI infrastructure will be the two main axes of this long-term bull market.
AI and algorithms are reshaping investment logic, the AI investment wave has just begun
Tom Lee stated that, despite the market being affected by inflation and policy noise, from a structural perspective, the United States is entering a long-term productivity increase driven by AI.
He pointed out that the combination of AI and automation symbolizes that humanity is moving towards an 'infinite labor force era.' In other words, advancements in AI, robotics, and algorithms will reshape the operating logic of production, consumption, and investment.
Regarding concerns about overheating AI investments, Tom Lee believes it is still early. As long as the improvement in computing power continues to make models stronger, saturation has not yet been reached. He cited that private investments in China once accounted for over 40% of GDP, maintaining high growth for many years. In comparison, the AI investment boom has just begun, and we are far from being over the top.
The number of wallets and usage frequency become key indicators of BTC volatility.
Tom Lee reflected on his journey of studying BTC since 2017. He said that at that time, he was just curious why BTC could surge tenfold in just a few years, and later found that its value growth completely aligns with the logic of 'network effects.'
He constructed a model based on two key indicators: 'number of wallets' and 'usage frequency per wallet.' By observing these two data points, one can explain over 90% of BTC's price fluctuations. This is consistent with the diffusion law of social network value and confirms the assertion of 'Metcalfe’s Law,' which states that:
"The value of a network is proportional to the square of its number of users."
Most optimistic about BTC, price performance may surpass that of gold.
Tom Lee stated that he once predicted in a report that BTC could reach $25,000 in the future and recommended investors allocate 2% of their funds to crypto assets. Although this report caused dissatisfaction among some institutional clients and even led to cancellations, he laughed and said:
"When the market reacts so strongly to something, it usually means you got it right."
Now, eight years later, BTC has become one of the mainstream assets. He emphasized:
"BTC is still our most favored investment target, and its performance may even surpass that of gold."
Population structure changes support the long-term bull market in the U.S.
Tom Lee pointed out that the most fundamental force affecting the economy is not policy or interest rates, but population structure. He stated that the population aged 30 to 50 in the U.S. has rebounded since 2009 and transitioned to positive growth after 2016. This group is the main force behind credit, consumption, innovation, and investment. From a macro perspective, all economic variables ultimately point to population.
He further pointed out that the aging population issue in many countries in Europe and Asia has actually made the demand for AI technology and labor in the United States even stronger, giving the U.S. a rare advantage in the global structure. He believes that the U.S. is in a dual golden period of 'population structure improvement and technological innovation,' which will support a long-term bull market over the next decade.
A new round of economic cycles begins, market confidence returns, and capital restarts.
Tom Lee emphasized that although there are still mixed signals regarding new government policies, the overall direction is actually positive, which helps control deficits, stimulate private investment, and restore market confidence.
He stated that 'animal spirits' are returning. Although the consumer confidence index has not yet reflected this, the investment behavior in capital markets has already begun to regain vitality. He anticipates that the U.S. will enter a new long-term upward cycle driven by AI, productivity improvement, and population structure improvement, with BTC and AI being the two core pillars of this long-term structural bull market.
(Note: The term 'animal spirits' originates from economist Keynes, used to describe the 'confidence and willingness to take risks' exhibited by people in economic decision-making. It is not the result of rational analysis but rather an emotional force that drives investment, consumption, and entrepreneurship. When this 'daring atmosphere' returns to the market, people are more willing to take risks and invest, thus restarting the economy.)
(BitMine Chairman Tom Lee appeared at Korea Blockchain Week, predicting a target price of $10,000 for Ethereum by the end of the year)
This article Tom Lee: The Investment Boom in BTC and AI Infrastructure is the Main Axis of a New Long-Term Bull Market first appeared in Chain News ABMedia.
