In the crypto markets, there is a moment of great euphoria: Bitcoin (BTC) has surpassed $120,000, a level it hadn't reached since August, generating renewed expectations among institutional investors, traders, and enthusiasts. (CoinDesk)
This milestone is not a coincidence: it is due to a combination of factors—from institutional flows to the macroeconomic environment in the United States—that enhance the appetite for digital assets. Let's break down what is happening, what risks analysts are monitoring, and what could come next.
What is behind the jump?
1. Massive inflows into Bitcoin ETFs
One of the major forces behind the bullish momentum is the institutional flows that, through Bitcoin spot ETFs, are strongly entering the market. In recent days, more than USD 2.25 billion in net inflows into those funds were reported. (TradingView)
BlackRock's IBIT fund led the inflows, with hundreds of millions of dollars daily. (TradingView)
Fidelity, ARK & 21Shares also rank among those that have attracted the most capital recently. (TradingView)
Even when more than USD 676 million in inflows into ETFs were reported in a single day. (Trading News)
These flows reflect a decided institutional interest in Bitcoin as a 'mainstream' asset, not just speculative.
2. Favorable macroeconomic conditions and political risk
The macro environment has also acted as a tailwind:
The U.S. government shutdown has generated economic uncertainty, prompting some investors to seek alternative refuges such as Bitcoin. (The Economic Times)
Recent labor market data (such as the ADP report) showed disappointments, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut rates in its next October meeting. (Barron's)
In the face of lower rates or the expectation of cuts, risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) become more attractive. (Barron's)
3. 'On-chain' data and lower selling pressure from large holders
Beyond external momentum, the internal dynamics of the crypto market also show interesting signals:
On-chain data indicates that long-term holders (LTH) are reducing their selling pressure, which relaxes a key limit for the price. (TradingView)
The Short-Term Holder Realized Value Ratio (RVT) metric has been compressing since May, indicating that short-term speculators are capturing lower profits relative to network volume. (Cointelegraph)
In the derivatives markets, open interest in BTC futures contracts reached record levels (around USD 32.6 billion) as traders position themselves ahead of possible breakouts. (CoinDesk)
Risks and warning signals
Although the situation looks promising, there are several factors that investors should monitor:
Technically, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows overbought levels, which could motivate a short-term technical correction. (Cointribune)
A consolidation below $120,000 could be observed as part of a healthy 'breathing' before a new thrust. (Investing.com)
If the Fed decides to maintain a more restrictive stance or macro data surprises to the upside, risk appetite could weaken. (Investing.com)
The 'sell walls' at higher levels could limit the strength of the bullish movement if demand does not keep pace. (Investing.com)
A pullback to ranges between $110,000 and $118,000 would be considered normal in this type of rally before a more solid base is built. (Investing.com)
And now what to expect?
With Bitcoin consolidated above $120,000, several technical and fundamental scenarios become relevant:
Institutional consolidation and accumulation: a well-established accumulation phase could serve as a platform for new jumps in the fourth quarter of the year.
Ambitious targets: some analysts project that if flows persist and the macro environment remains benign, BTC could test levels in the range of $128,000 to $135,000 in the medium term. (The Coin Republic)
Healthy pullbacks: before aiming higher, we are likely to see minor corrections to solidify key supports.
Dependence on macro and regulatory sentiment: the rally is not without risk if the economic or regulatory context changes suddenly.
Conclusion
Surpassing $120,000 marks a new chapter in Bitcoin's history. It is not just a technical feat: it reflects how institutional capital is entering firmly, backed by a macroeconomic environment that, for now, favors risk assets.
However, the path will not be without temporary corrections and challenges. Investors must pay attention to on-chain metrics, the actions of large ETF funds, and the global political-economic pulse.
If you want, I can help you project possible price scenarios, identify key support/resistance levels, or compare this rally with other historical chapters of Bitcoin. Are you interested in me preparing that for you?
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