Jerome Powell will leave his position as head of the Federal Reserve in May 2026. This fall, the Treasury will conduct interviews with candidates, after which the White House will choose a new head of the central bank.
Trump stated that he will not appoint anyone to the Federal Reserve who does not support rate cuts. Below are the 2 main candidates:
🔑 Kevin Hassett
📊 Probability of appointment: ~39%
👔 Former advisor to Trump on economics.
📉 His arrival almost guarantees quick and aggressive rate cuts — something Trump has long demanded.
💵 For the markets, this is a signal: yields down, dollar weaker, stocks and crypto 🚀, but also higher inflation risk 📈.
🔑 Christopher Waller
📊 Probability of appointment: ~30%
👥 82% of economists would like to see him in that position.
🏦 Current member of the Federal Reserve Board, known for his measured approach.
📊 Supports rate cuts, but only "based on data" and without pressure from the White House.
📈 His appointment is a smooth trajectory, fewer surprises in the bond market 📉 and less risk of yield spikes.
📊 For the markets
The choice between Hassett and Waller is a choice between:
💧 Sharp influx of liquidity (accelerating rally, but also inflation)
⚖️ Gradual easing (more stable dynamics).
📌 In any case, the year 2026 promises to be a year of high volatility 🌪.