Are leading indicators signaling a recession in the USA? ⚠️
LEI (Leading Economic Index) is the main "barometer" of the future economy of the USA.
It includes 10 key indicators: from manufacturing orders to unemployment benefit claims and stock market dynamics.
The idea is simple: if LEI falls for several months in a row, it's an important indicator that an economic slowdown is ahead, and sometimes even a recession.
📊 What happened
In August, LEI fell by -0.5%, the largest decline since April.
Since October of last year, the index has decreased by a total of -2.1% — this is already alarming: in recent years, such series of declines have almost always preceded recessions.
📌 Why is it falling
• Weak labor market — claims for benefits are rising.
• Low new manufacturing orders.
• Tariff pressure: they have already "eaten" part of the GDP growth in the first half of the year and continue to hit consumers and businesses.
💡 How serious is it?
A formal recession is not expected yet, but economic growth in 2025 is forecasted to be only 1.6% (last year it was 2.8%).
However, economists warn: if tariffs persist, the risks of recession in 2026 will multiply.
Do you believe in a recession in the USA?