Brothers, tonight at 20:30, the five major economic data from the US will explode in succession, directly determining whether BTC will soar to the peak of 120,000 or crash through the floor of 100,000! ETH is the same, the 4,000 level is teetering, both bulls and bears are in a frenzy — but don't panic, if you understand the 'subtext' of these five pieces of data, you can sit calmly in the storm!
Let's get to the point: Tonight, these five pieces of data are all the 'life and death switches' for the crypto world.
Initial Jobless Claims (Expected 235,000)
Logic: Strong employment = Fed dares to raise interest rates (bearish for crypto); Weak employment = Soaring expectations for rate cuts (bullish for crypto).
My view: If the actual value is below 231,000 (previous value) tonight, it indicates that the job market is overheating, and the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its 'hawkish rate hikes', BTC and ETH may directly plunge by more than 5%! However, if it exceeds 235,000, or even breaks 240,000, that would be a signal of economic recession, and the crypto world will take off directly, BTC hitting 115,000 and ETH breaking 4,200 is not a dream!
Q2 GDP final value (expected 3.30%)
Logic: High GDP = strong economic resilience = high priority for the Federal Reserve to combat inflation (bearish); Low GDP = economic recession = strong expectations for rate cuts (bullish).
My view: This data expectation is consistent with the previous value, considered 'neutral thunder', but if the actual value unexpectedly rises (for example, over 3.5%), it will instead become bearish—because the Federal Reserve will feel 'the economy is not collapsing, rate hikes don't need to stop', and the crypto world will be pressed down!
Core PCE price index (expected 2.5%)
Logic: This is the 'favorite child of inflation' that the Federal Reserve cares about the most! Above 2.5% = rate hikes continue (bearish); below 2.5% = rate cut window opens (bullish).
My view: This data is absolutely core tonight! If the actual value is above 2.5%, Powell will likely make strong statements tonight: 'Inflation is not beaten, rate hikes continue!' The crypto world will bleed profusely, BTC may fall below 100,000, ETH return to 3,500! But if below 2.5%, global crypto funds will go on a buying spree, BTC hitting 120,000 and ETH breaking 4,500 is not a problem!
Personal consumption expenditures (1.6%) + durable goods orders (-0.5%)
Logic: Weak consumption + poor manufacturing = economic recession = full expectations for rate cuts (bullish); Strong consumption + good manufacturing = inflation rebound = explosive expectations for rate hikes (bearish).
My view: Tonight, pay close attention to whether consumption is below expectations (for example, dropping to below 1.5%), and if consumption is poor + durable goods orders worse than -2.80% (for example, dropping to -1%), that would be a solid proof of economic recession, and the crypto world will initiate a 'risk-off surge'! But if consumption exceeds expectations, and durable goods orders are better than -0.5%, then the crypto world will be drained by the dollar, leading to a direct downturn!
I don't know how to time the market, you can follow Shen Ce, who will remind fans in the village in real time every day.
Market prediction: BTC at 110,000, ETH at 4,000, is it heaven or hell after the data?
Currently, BTC is stuck at 110,000, ETH is holding 4,000, funds are already panicking before the data—big players are hedging crazily, leveraged players are closing positions overnight, volatility will surely break historical extremes tonight!
Bullish hope: Core PCE below 2.5% + Initial jobless claims surge → Rate hike expectations collapse, BTC hits 120,000, ETH stabilizes at 4,500!
Bearish nightmare: Core PCE above 2.5% + Initial jobless claims exceed expectations → Rate hikes until 2026, BTC falls below 100,000, ETH returns to 3,500!
Retail survival guide: How to operate before/after the data?
✅ Data before (now-20:30):
Heavy players: Reduce positions by 50%! Don't bet on black swans; surviving is the key to enjoying profits!
Light players: Use 10% of your position to gamble on 'extreme market conditions' (for example, buy bullish options for BTC breaking 115,000, or bearish options for ETH dropping below 3,900).
Hedgers: Long BTC + short ETH, or vice versa, locking in volatility profits.
✅ Data after (within 1 hour after 20:30):
Bullish signal (PCE drops + initial claims explode): Buy the dip but don't chase too high! Wait for a 1%-2% pullback before entering, target BTC 115,000, ETH 4,200.
Bearish signal (PCE rises + initial claims stable): Buy the bottom but do it slowly! Buy in batches after a drop of more than 3%, BTC 108,000, ETH 3,900 is strong support.
Final warning: Tonight is not for beginners!
Data market is 'scissors mutual cutting', directly de-leverage if leverage exceeds 3 times! Let's discuss your judgment on the data in the comments.
Now, turn your phone brightness all the way up, witness history at 20:30 on the dot! Are you the chives harvested by the data, or the hunter enjoying the meat? Share your views in the comments, let's witness the 'nuclear explosion moment' in the crypto world tonight! I don't know how to time the market, you can follow Shen Ce, who will remind fans in the village in real time every day. Your small step forward may just be a big step towards your wealth growth #美SEC和CFTC加密监管合作
