Recently, the market for ETH has indeed been frustrating — not only is it rising slowly, but when it falls, it can be quite fierce, and many people have lost patience with this 'weak oscillation'. However, a closer look at the market reveals that the current 'dullness' is actually 'the energy buildup before the storm'. In the next 3-4 days, ETH is likely to surge upwards first, harvesting a wave of shorts!
1. First, understand the current situation: oscillation narrowing + a bearish funding environment, which instead hides reversal signals
First, two key facts must be clarified:
K-line narrows to 'extreme': Recently, the volatility range of ETH has become increasingly smaller, especially on the daily chart, with the bodies of consecutive K-lines being very narrow, and trading volume shrinking accordingly — this is not 'lying flat', but rather both bulls and bears are 'holding back their big moves'. Once the range is broken, the direction will be very clear;
The funding situation is temporarily bearish, but the shorts have shown cracks: Currently, the market sentiment is not looking good, and there are quite a few people looking bearish in the short term, but the space for 'downward attack on longs' has become very small - as can be seen from the liquidation data, there are not many long stop-loss orders below; even if it drops, the amount of liquidation that can be triggered is limited, and for the shorts, there is 'no profit to be made.'
On the contrary, the current market looks more like a 'short trap': it seems to be weakly declining, but in fact, it is quietly brewing upward momentum, just waiting for an opportunity to trigger a 'short attack' market.
Two, core logic: upward attack on shorts 'cost-effective,' shorts cannot withstand it.
Why dare to judge 'there will be a short attack in the next 3-4 days'? Two pieces of data provide solid evidence:
Downward attack on long positions 'No profit to be made': Currently, long positions are mainly concentrated around $4450, but from the liquidation intensity, even if ETH drops to $4450, the amount of long liquidations that can be triggered is very small - on one hand, many long positions have set lower stop losses (for example, $4250), and on the other hand, the previous declines have already washed away many 'weak longs', leaving only those who can withstand volatility;
Upward attack on short positions 'One push explodes': Looking at the shorts, there are a large number of short stop-loss orders piled up at the $4600 and $4800 positions! Especially at $4600, as long as ETH pushes up $150 (from the current price to $4600), it can directly trigger this batch of short liquidations - short covering will be forced to buy ETH, which in turn helps push the price up, forming a positive cycle of 'the more it rises, the more shorts explode; the more shorts explode, the more it rises.'
In simple terms: going down 'earn no money and expend effort,' going up 'easily harvesting shorts while also driving the market,' switching to the main force, they would also choose the path of 'short attack.'
Three, key support + densely packed short positions determine that a 'short attack' must come
There are two points to further confirm the probability of a 'backward attack':
$4250 is the 'iron bottom support': this position is a strong support at the weekly level; in the past few pullbacks to here, a quick rebound was seen, indicating that the buying below is very solid - it is difficult for the shorts to break $4250, and even if it is briefly broken, it will be quickly pulled back, making it impossible to form a 'sustained decline';
$4600-$4800 is the disaster area for short positions: currently, most of the shorts in the market have set their stop losses in the $4600-$4800 range; on one hand, they believe ETH cannot rise, and on the other hand, they want to 'bet on breaking below $4450.' But this behavior of 'crowding stop losses' just gives the main force the opportunity for 'precise strikes' - as long as ETH slightly exerts force to break through $4600, it can detonate this batch of short positions, and the market will be instantly driven up.
It's like 'the shorts put all their eggs in one basket,' the main force just needs to give it a gentle push, and this basket will break; at that time, the rebound strength of ETH may be stronger than expected.
Final reminder: Don't let short-term fluctuations trick you into losing your holdings, keep a close eye on the $4600 'key level'
What should be done now is not to get tangled up in 'whether it will rise or not,' but to keep a close eye on the $4600 node:
If ETH can hold above $4600 and the trading volume increases, then the 'short attack' market will officially start, and the next step will directly look at $4800, and it may even challenge previous highs;
Even if it is still fluctuating in the short term, don't easily cut losses or chase shorts - there is strong support at $4250 below, and there are a large number of short liquidations above; the current fluctuations are just the 'last step of the main force washing the market,' and after the wash is done, the direction will naturally come out.
Overall, ETH's current 'weakness' is superficial; the core logic contains the driving force for 'upward attack on shorts'; in the next 3-4 days, there is a high probability of a 'backward attack,' so don't be scared away by short-term fluctuations and miss the opportunity to harvest shorts.
