The dollar index immediately went down, but did not break through 96 down at once.
The accompanying letter from the Fed is mediocre - unemployment is expected at 4.5%, and inflation at 3-3.1%
At the same time, it is stated that the goal is inflation at 2%.
That was unnecessary, as it is unrealistic.
But at the same time, they expect two more reductions this year - that is good and according to plan.
At the press conference, Powell immediately took a crooked path. He repeated about 2% inflation and a slowdown in GDP and the labor market. He stated that the effect of tariffs has not yet manifested, and he does not see the need to quickly lower the rate.
Stock indices fell from such rhetoric, while the dollar index rose. Gold also declined. Later, stock indices began to recover, and the dollar index again moved towards 95.
It is obvious that Powell is acting deliberately.
In August, Trump bent him with the team, now, obviously, other forces are at play in the opposite direction.
In the end, Powell also added that the Fed would maintain independence from the US administration (that is, from Trump).
On a positive note - Powell said that the economy is in good shape. And that as monetary policy eases, the mortgage rate will decrease. Thus, he indicated that a decrease in monetary policy is inevitable.
Trump again demonstrates weakness. The response to the murder of Kirk was not truly tough, Powell is again showing him the middle finger, and in response to all this, Trump will likely write something ominous on social media.
What next?
Separating the important from the informational noise.
The Fed plans to lower the rate by another 0.5% by the end of the year - this is stated in the Fed's letter and corresponds to market expectations. This is good.
Money generation is inevitable - Trump's new budget leaves no choice.
Until the elections in November 2026, the markets will support with all their might - this is also inevitable. The worse things get, the stronger the support will be.
And Powell will eventually be removed from the Fed. In the first half of 2026, Trump will have control over the Fed (if everything is fine with Trump himself). I think everything will go according to plan in 2025 (2 rate cuts by the end of the year), and in 2026 they will lower it significantly and quickly, plus there will be large-scale money generation.
The markets understood the above after the initial dump, so the decline is practically played back in the stock market, and everything is calm in crypto.
For the crypto market - no changes in plans. I do not rule out that we will take 4 trillion in the coming days, a reason will be found. By morning, the forecast remains the same - the range is 114000-117500.
