Two days before the interest rate cut announcement, which side are you on? $BTC $ETH
At 2 AM (Beijing time) on September 18 this year, according to FedWatch predictions, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is as high as 95.8%.
Looking back at last year's FOMC meeting, which took place at 2 AM (Beijing time) on September 19, it was announced that interest rates would be cut by 50 basis points. Five days before the rate cut, the market began to fluctuate, experiencing three consecutive days of decline:
On September 14, Bitcoin fell by 0.83%
On September 15, Bitcoin fell by 1.44%
On September 16, Bitcoin fell by 1.55%
Two days before the rate cut, the market warmed up. By 2 AM on September 19, after the announcement of the rate cut, Bitcoin and altcoins initially dipped, followed by a steady rise in Bitcoin, which surged from $5,800 to $10,700. This upward momentum continued until December 8. It wasn't until December 9 when Trump announced tariff increases that the market began to decline.
This year's key question is whether to cut by 25bp or 50bp:
If only 25bp is cut, it may initially spike upwards before accelerating downwards;
If 50bp is cut, it may initially dip downwards before accelerating upwards, potentially breaking previous highs
